TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13117550
Played Sep 12Finished
Yaroslav Tebenko
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811811311––––
Oleksii Rodin
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:02 and never touched — 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeOleksii Rodin to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Oleksii Rodin below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 52 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Oleksii Rodin at 61.6%
52 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 3–16 Oleksii Rodin Yaroslav Tebenko has won 3 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:02What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Rodin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-16 in 19
Rodin
Correct
gap of 13 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1672 vs Rodin 1538
Tebenko
Wrong
both rated, 133 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 40% vs Rodin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 70% vs Rodin 40%
Tebenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko +1 · Rodin +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Rodin) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rodin form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 2.50 / Rodin 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Rodin)+0.7pp
Setka Cup · #13117550
Tebenko2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 135 of 278
Down 0–1, comes back32% 48 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back13% 10 of 80
Rodin1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 141 of 229
Up 2–0, closes it96% 69 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it79% 96 of 121
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko2wins
AwayRodin8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRodin leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayRodin100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko2Rodin8n = 10Rodin took 8 of 10
S2Tebenko4Rodin6n = 10Rodin took 6 of 10
S3Tebenko2Rodin8n = 10Rodin took 8 of 10
S4Tebenko5Rodin1n = 6Tebenko took 5 of 6
S5Tebenko0Rodin3n = 3Rodin took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoRodinT − RBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.039.4−7.4per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoRodinBasisWin rate · lifetime398 / 824 vs 174 / 29648.3%58.8%398 / 824 vs 174 / 296Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RodinTebenko 2.50/Rodin 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.2%
Rodin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Rodin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 28 · 18:35Y. Tebenko238870O. Rodin331111113
LJul 28 · 02:30Y. Tebenko36811891O. Rodin3911611113
LJul 25 · 21:15Y. Tebenko3731131192O. Rodin44116115113
LJul 22 · 08:05Y. Tebenko4591381142O. Rodin511111117113
LJul 21 · 17:08Y. Tebenko4296111152O. Rodin49111197113
LJul 21 · 14:35Y. Tebenko167810O. Rodin331111113
WJul 15 · 06:35Y. Tebenko4211911113O. Rodin36911881
LJul 14 · 18:35Y. Tebenko1841040O. Rodin341112113
LJul 14 · 24:00Y. Tebenko155640O. Rodin331111113
WJul 8 · 05:35Y. Tebenko4612167113O. Rodin4210141171
Y. Tebenko10
WSep 12 · 20:00Y. Tebenko1.831111113Y. Parahailo1.837470LSep 12 · 02:15M. Potapov1.80821111113Y. Tebenko1.9111118992WSep 12 · 01:15Y. Tebenko2.2081111113R. Novak1.61114661LSep 12 · 24:15Y. Tebenko2.007570I. Pytsko1.731111113LSep 11 · 22:45Y. Tebenko1.738750V. Korobko2.001111113WSep 11 · 20:45Y. Tebenko1.9111513113O. Storozhenko1.807111181WSep 9 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.671111123I. Fashchevskyi2.1064100WSep 9 · 09:05D. Maltsev1.91511871Y. Tebenko1.8011511113WSep 9 · 08:05Y. Tebenko2.001111113O. Storozhenko1.738980WSep 9 · 07:05M. Potapov1.731176101Y. Tebenko2.0091111123
O. Rodin10
WSep 12 · 20:30M. Khomenko1.7351111962O. Rodin2.00119411113WSep 7 · 08:35O. Rodin2.0011114133Y. Vorsuliak1.737611111LSep 7 · 07:35Y. Kolos1.911111127113O. Rodin1.8087141172LSep 7 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi1.73117112153O. Rodin2.00811911132LSep 7 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.831111113O. Rodin1.833880LSep 6 · 19:05O. Rodin1.839560Y. Vorsuliak1.831111103LSep 6 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.101113113O. Rodin1.6761140LSep 6 · 15:05I. Hrekh1.611111113O. Rodin2.206340WSep 6 · 14:05O. Rodin2.38111111113M. Loboda1.53138571WSep 6 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi1.73631181O. Rodin2.001111793
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