TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122028
Played Sep 13Finished
Ruslan Novak
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911116117811811
Maksym Khomenko
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:28 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeRuslan Novak to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRuslan Novak above · Maksym Khomenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 93 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Ruslan Novak at 59.3%
93 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Novak 29–27 Maksym Khomenko Maksym Khomenko has won 27 of their 56 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:28What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Novak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-27 in 56
Novak
Wrong
gap of 2 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novak 1455 vs Khomenko 1715
Khomenko
Correct
both rated, 261 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 0% vs Khomenko 100%
Khomenko
Correct
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 20% vs Khomenko 70%
Khomenko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak -5 · Khomenko +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Novak) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khomenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 1.80 / Khomenko 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Novak)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13122028
Novak1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 95 of 168
Up 2–0, closes it94% 58 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it75% 70 of 94
Khomenko1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog44% won 67 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back30% 29 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back14% 9 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovak6wins
AwayKhomenko4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNovak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovak71.4%5 of 7
AwayKhomenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novak7Khomenko3n = 10Novak took 7 of 10
S2Novak6Khomenko4n = 10Novak took 6 of 10
S3Novak4Khomenko6n = 10Khomenko took 6 of 10
S4Novak6Khomenko1n = 7Novak took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovakKhomenkoN − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.432.2+6.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakKhomenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime261 / 499 vs 467 / 85152.3%54.9%261 / 499 vs 467 / 851Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovakNovak 1.80/Khomenko 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Novak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Khomenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 01:00R. Novak219570M. Khomenko331111113
WAug 9 · 18:05R. Novak48111115113M. Khomenko36561781
WAug 9 · 01:00R. Novak4071111113M. Khomenko25114461
WAug 2 · 14:35R. Novak4211119113M. Khomenko22531131
LAug 1 · 22:30R. Novak49117111372M. Khomenko559111311113
LJul 26 · 01:00R. Novak356101181M. Khomenko3811124113
WJul 12 · 01:00R. Novak331111113M. Khomenko165650
LJul 5 · 17:05R. Novak4411851192M. Khomenko44511116113
WJun 29 · 09:35R. Novak3911116113M. Khomenko27741151
WJun 28 · 17:05R. Novak331111113M. Khomenko269980
R. Novak10
LSep 13 · 12:05R. Novak2.636680O. Rodin1.441111113LSep 13 · 03:00R. Novak2.631178101O. Rodin1.4491111123LSep 13 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.001111113R. Novak1.739570LSep 12 · 23:00Y. Tebenko2.10151111113R. Novak1.671313771LSep 12 · 22:00R. Novak1.8061110101Y. Parahailo1.9111512123LSep 12 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.5091111113R. Novak1.50117991WSep 12 · 03:15R. Novak1.53111511113O. Storozhenko2.38917771LSep 12 · 01:15Y. Tebenko2.2081111113R. Novak1.61114661LSep 11 · 23:15M. Potapov2.20131110113R. Novak1.611181221WSep 11 · 22:15R. Novak1.6111911173I. Pytsko2.207117151
M. Khomenko10
WSep 13 · 12:35Y. Kolos4.0093110M. Khomenko1.221111133WSep 13 · 02:00Y. Tebenko2.503490M. Khomenko1.501111113WSep 13 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.001111113R. Novak1.739570WSep 13 · 24:00M. Khomenko1.281111113Y. Parahailo3.505760WSep 12 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.91111186113V. Kovalchuk1.8056111162LSep 12 · 20:30M. Khomenko1.7351111962O. Rodin2.00119411113WSep 7 · 09:44M. Khomenko1.281111113Y. Kolos3.505630LSep 7 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi1.571381111113M. Khomenko2.2515115982LSep 7 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.389670Y. Vorsuliak1.531111113WSep 7 · 06:05Y. Kolos3.258540M. Khomenko1.331111113
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