TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13118784
Played Sep 13Finished
Ruslan Novak
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1197118111012––
Oleksii Rodin
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:43 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeOleksii Rodin to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Novak above · Oleksii Rodin below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 79 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Oleksii Rodin at 62.9%
79 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Novak 2–4 Oleksii Rodin Ruslan Novak has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:43What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Rodin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Rodin
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novak 1481 vs Rodin 1571
Rodin
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 20% vs Rodin 80%
Rodin
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 40% vs Rodin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak -4 · Rodin -1
Novak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Rodin) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rodin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 2.63 / Rodin 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Rodin)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13118784
Novak2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 22 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Rodin1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 140 of 225
Up 2–0, closes it96% 68 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it79% 95 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeNovak2wins
AwayRodin4wins
1 of 6 to a deciderRodin leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayRodin75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novak2Rodin4n = 6Rodin took 4 of 6
S2Novak1Rodin5n = 6Rodin took 5 of 6
S3Novak3Rodin3n = 6split evenly
S4Novak1Rodin3n = 4Rodin took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricNovakRodinN − RBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match36.239.5−3.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakRodinBasisWin rate · lifetime261 / 498 vs 177 / 30052.4%59%261 / 498 vs 177 / 300Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RodinNovak 2.63/Rodin 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Rodin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rodin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 13 · 03:00R. Novak361178101O. Rodin4391111123
LAug 9 · 12:05R. Novak27107100O. Rodin351211123
WAug 8 · 22:00R. Novak4111811113O. Rodin31811481
LAug 3 · 05:35R. Novak3198140O. Rodin381111163
WAug 2 · 18:35R. Novak50711129113O. Rodin50119101192
LAug 1 · 23:30R. Novak32671181O. Rodin4011117113
R. Novak10
LSep 13 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.001111113R. Novak1.739570LSep 12 · 23:00Y. Tebenko2.10151111113R. Novak1.671313771LSep 12 · 22:00R. Novak1.8061110101Y. Parahailo1.9111512123LSep 12 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.5091111113R. Novak1.50117991WSep 12 · 03:15R. Novak1.53111511113O. Storozhenko2.38917771LSep 12 · 01:15Y. Tebenko2.2081111113R. Novak1.61114661LSep 11 · 23:15M. Potapov2.20131110113R. Novak1.611181221WSep 11 · 22:15R. Novak1.6111911173I. Pytsko2.207117151WSep 11 · 21:15V. Korobko4.335101151R. Novak1.2011124113WAug 9 · 18:05R. Novak1.57111115113M. Khomenko2.25561781
O. Rodin10
LSep 13 · 01:30O. Rodin1.5096111142Y. Parahailo2.50111143113WSep 12 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.5061180O. Rodin1.501113113WSep 12 · 21:30Y. Tebenko2.508830O. Rodin1.501111113WSep 12 · 20:30M. Khomenko1.7351111962O. Rodin2.00119411113WSep 7 · 08:35O. Rodin2.0011114133Y. Vorsuliak1.737611111LSep 7 · 07:35Y. Kolos1.911111127113O. Rodin1.8087141172LSep 7 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi1.73117112153O. Rodin2.00811911132LSep 7 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.831111113O. Rodin1.833880LSep 6 · 19:05O. Rodin1.839560Y. Vorsuliak1.831111103LSep 6 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.101113113O. Rodin1.6761140
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