TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122101
Played Sep 13Finished
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511911117811––
Yurii Parahailo
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:58 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeYurii Parahailo to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Yurii Parahailo below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 73 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Yurii Parahailo at 61.2%
73 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 43–72 Yurii Parahailo Vladyslav Kovalchuk has won 43 of their 115 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:58What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Parahailo
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
43-72 in 115
Parahailo
Correct
gap of 29 in 115, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1533 vs Parahailo 1610
Parahailo
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 20% vs Parahailo 60%
Parahailo
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 20% vs Parahailo 80%
Parahailo
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -4 · Parahailo +2
Kovalchuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Parahailo) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 2.50 / Parahailo 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Parahailo)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13122101
Kovalchuk2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 98 of 223
Down 0–1, comes back24% 26 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 52
Parahailo1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 88 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it87% 48 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it76% 65 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk1wins
AwayParahailo9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderParahailo leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk20%1 of 5
AwayParahailo100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk5Parahailo5n = 10split evenly
S2Kovalchuk0Parahailo10n = 10Parahailo took 10 of 10
S3Kovalchuk5Parahailo5n = 10split evenly
S4Kovalchuk2Parahailo5n = 7Parahailo took 5 of 7
S5Kovalchuk0Parahailo3n = 3Parahailo took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukParahailoK − PBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.040.8−7.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukParahailoBasisWin rate · lifetime373 / 782 vs 405 / 80747.7%50.2%373 / 782 vs 405 / 807Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParahailoKovalchuk 2.50/Parahailo 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Parahailo · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Parahailo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk301110451Y. Parahailo4171211113
LAug 24 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk208570Y. Parahailo331111113
LAug 23 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk47111011872Y. Parahailo48612811113
LAug 23 · 24:30V. Kovalchuk46117121062Y. Parahailo528111012113
LAug 19 · 10:35V. Kovalchuk2513480Y. Parahailo371511113
LAug 18 · 12:05V. Kovalchuk173590Y. Parahailo331111113
LAug 15 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk34871181Y. Parahailo4011117113
LAug 11 · 16:05V. Kovalchuk27119341Y. Parahailo4291111113
LAug 7 · 11:55V. Kovalchuk4469111262Y. Parahailo521111910113
WAug 5 · 10:35V. Kovalchuk4011711113Y. Parahailo30811741
V. Kovalchuk10
LSep 13 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.501110451Y. Parahailo1.5071211113LSep 13 · 24:30Y. Tebenko2.20261111113V. Kovalchuk1.6111115872LSep 12 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.5061180O. Rodin1.501113113LSep 12 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.91111186113V. Kovalchuk1.8056111162WSep 12 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.5091111113R. Novak1.50117991LAug 24 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk1.9112116101Y. Vorsuliak1.8014711123LAug 24 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.571111113V. Kovalchuk2.258570LAug 24 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk2.259380O. Rodin1.571111113LAug 24 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.101111133V. Kovalchuk1.6764110WAug 24 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.911511113O. Storozhenko1.8013660
Y. Parahailo10
WSep 13 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.501110451Y. Parahailo1.5071211113WSep 13 · 01:30O. Rodin1.5096111142Y. Parahailo2.50111143113LSep 13 · 24:00M. Khomenko1.281111113Y. Parahailo3.505760WSep 12 · 22:00R. Novak1.8061110101Y. Parahailo1.9111512123LSep 12 · 20:00Y. Tebenko1.831111113Y. Parahailo1.837470WAug 31 · 10:35Y. Parahailo3.751111113M. Khomenko1.254840WAug 31 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.91118117113Y. Tebenko1.8041181182WAug 31 · 07:35Y. Parahailo1.831111113O. Storozhenko1.837550WAug 31 · 06:05Y. Parahailo2.2011611123D. Maltsev1.618117101WAug 24 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.571111113V. Kovalchuk2.258570
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