TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122385
Played Sep 13Finished
Ruslan Novak
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
14126111191012119
Yurii Parahailo
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRuslan Novak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Novak above · Yurii Parahailo below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 105 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Ruslan Novak at 54.0%
105 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Novak 37–49 Yurii Parahailo Ruslan Novak has won 37 of their 86 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:52What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Parahailo
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-49 in 86
Parahailo
Wrong
gap of 12 in 86, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novak 1454 vs Parahailo 1602
Parahailo
Wrong
both rated, 148 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 0% vs Parahailo 60%
Parahailo
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 10% vs Parahailo 70%
Parahailo
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak -5 · Parahailo -1
Novak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Parahailo) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novak form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 1.83 / Parahailo 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Parahailo)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13122385
Novak1.83
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Parahailo1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovak6wins
AwayParahailo4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNovak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovak80%4 of 5
AwayParahailo60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novak5Parahailo5n = 10split evenly
S2Novak6Parahailo4n = 10Novak took 6 of 10
S3Novak5Parahailo5n = 10split evenly
S4Novak4Parahailo5n = 9Parahailo took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovakParahailoN − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.038.4+0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakParahailoBasisWin rate · lifetime261 / 500 vs 406 / 80952.2%50.2%261 / 500 vs 406 / 809Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParahailoNovak 1.83/Parahailo 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Parahailo · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Novak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 22:00R. Novak3761110101Y. Parahailo4011512123
WJul 27 · 07:05R. Novak495101112113Y. Parahailo50111291082
WJul 26 · 18:35R. Novak4111811113Y. Parahailo34711791
WJul 25 · 23:00R. Novak351111133Y. Parahailo2494110
LJul 19 · 18:35R. Novak28117641Y. Parahailo4071111113
WJun 1 · 08:05R. Novak3841112113Y. Parahailo341161071
LMay 31 · 14:05R. Novak389117111Y. Parahailo4111611133
WMay 25 · 11:05R. Novak491111511113Y. Parahailo4575111392
WMay 24 · 15:35R. Novak371111693Y. Parahailo34961181
LMay 23 · 23:30R. Novak3810711101Y. Parahailo4212117123
R. Novak10
LSep 13 · 13:35R. Novak1.8091111882M. Khomenko1.91116711113LSep 13 · 12:05R. Novak2.636680O. Rodin1.441111113LSep 13 · 03:00R. Novak2.631178101O. Rodin1.4491111123LSep 13 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.001111113R. Novak1.739570LSep 12 · 23:00Y. Tebenko2.10151111113R. Novak1.671313771LSep 12 · 22:00R. Novak1.8061110101Y. Parahailo1.9111512123LSep 12 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.5091111113R. Novak1.50117991WSep 12 · 03:15R. Novak1.53111511113O. Storozhenko2.38917771LSep 12 · 01:15Y. Tebenko2.2081111113R. Novak1.61114661LSep 11 · 23:15M. Potapov2.20131110113R. Novak1.611181221
Y. Parahailo10
LSep 13 · 14:05Y. Parahailo2.388980O. Rodin1.531111113WSep 13 · 13:05V. Kovalchuk2.50591181Y. Parahailo1.5011117113WSep 13 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.501110451Y. Parahailo1.5071211113WSep 13 · 01:30O. Rodin1.5096111142Y. Parahailo2.50111143113LSep 13 · 24:00M. Khomenko1.281111113Y. Parahailo3.505760WSep 12 · 22:00R. Novak1.8061110101Y. Parahailo1.9111512123LSep 12 · 20:00Y. Tebenko1.831111113Y. Parahailo1.837470WAug 31 · 10:35Y. Parahailo3.751111113M. Khomenko1.254840WAug 31 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.91118117113Y. Tebenko1.8041181182WAug 31 · 07:35Y. Parahailo1.831111113O. Storozhenko1.837550
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