TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122526
Played Sep 13Finished
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411711119311––
Oleksii Rodin
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:41 and never touched — 61.5% is still 61.5%
Graded at full timeOleksii Rodin to win
61.5%
61.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Oleksii Rodin below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 67 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Oleksii Rodin at 61.5%
67 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 6–13 Oleksii Rodin Vladyslav Kovalchuk has won 6 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:41What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Rodin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-13 in 19
Rodin
Correct
gap of 7 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1502 vs Rodin 1628
Rodin
Correct
both rated, 126 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 20% vs Rodin 80%
Rodin
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 20% vs Rodin 80%
Rodin
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +1 · Rodin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Rodin) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rodin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 2.63 / Rodin 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 67%
Edge (Rodin)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13122526
Kovalchuk2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 98 of 223
Down 0–1, comes back24% 26 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 52
Rodin1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 141 of 227
Up 2–0, closes it96% 68 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it79% 95 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk4wins
AwayRodin6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRodin leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk100%3 of 3
AwayRodin85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk3Rodin7n = 10Rodin took 7 of 10
S2Kovalchuk1Rodin9n = 10Rodin took 9 of 10
S3Kovalchuk4Rodin6n = 10Rodin took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk3Rodin2n = 5Kovalchuk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukRodinK − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.835.8−4.0per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukRodinBasisWin rate · lifetime374 / 786 vs 180 / 30447.6%59.2%374 / 786 vs 180 / 304Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RodinKovalchuk 2.63/Rodin 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.5%
Rodin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rodin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2561180O. Rodin351113113
LAug 24 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk209380O. Rodin331111113
WAug 23 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk3711411113O. Rodin23311721
WAug 22 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk48116119113O. Rodin3951151172
LAug 17 · 06:35V. Kovalchuk184950O. Rodin331111113
WAug 15 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk50712811123O. Rodin511110119102
WAug 10 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk43111011113O. Rodin32812661
LAug 9 · 18:35V. Kovalchuk206860O. Rodin331111113
LAug 1 · 21:30V. Kovalchuk30851251O. Rodin43111110113
LJul 29 · 05:05V. Kovalchuk2712690O. Rodin361411113
V. Kovalchuk10
WSep 13 · 16:35R. Novak1.53891191V. Kovalchuk2.3811114113LSep 13 · 15:35V. Kovalchuk1.837860M. Khomenko1.83111193LSep 13 · 14:35Y. Kolos1.83913814123V. Kovalchuk1.8311111112102LSep 13 · 13:05V. Kovalchuk2.50591181Y. Parahailo1.5011117113LSep 13 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.501110451Y. Parahailo1.5071211113LSep 13 · 24:30Y. Tebenko2.20261111113V. Kovalchuk1.6111115872LSep 12 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.5061180O. Rodin1.501113113LSep 12 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.91111186113V. Kovalchuk1.8056111162WSep 12 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.5091111113R. Novak1.50117991LAug 24 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk1.9112116101Y. Vorsuliak1.8014711123
O. Rodin10
LSep 13 · 17:35M. Khomenko1.8311118102O. Rodin1.836411101WSep 13 · 16:05Y. Kolos2.108860O. Rodin1.67111162WSep 13 · 14:05Y. Parahailo2.388980O. Rodin1.531111113WSep 13 · 12:05R. Novak2.636680O. Rodin1.441111113WSep 13 · 03:00R. Novak2.631178101O. Rodin1.4491111123LSep 13 · 01:30O. Rodin1.5096111142Y. Parahailo2.50111143113WSep 12 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.5061180O. Rodin1.501113113WSep 12 · 21:30Y. Tebenko2.508830O. Rodin1.501111113WSep 12 · 20:30M. Khomenko1.7351111962O. Rodin2.00119411113WSep 7 · 08:35O. Rodin2.0011114133Y. Vorsuliak1.737611111
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