TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126178
Played Sep 14Finished
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1311511611411––
Yaroslav Tebenko
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:21 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVladyslav Kovalchuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Yaroslav Tebenko below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 72 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Vladyslav Kovalchuk at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 39–35 Yaroslav Tebenko Yaroslav Tebenko has won 35 of their 74 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:21What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-35 in 74
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 4 in 74, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1487 vs Tebenko 1648
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 161 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 20% vs Tebenko 60%
Tebenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 20% vs Tebenko 50%
Tebenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -1 · Tebenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tebenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.67 / Tebenko 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovalchuk)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13126178
Kovalchuk1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 79 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it88% 30 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it76% 56 of 74
Tebenko2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 120 of 253
Down 0–1, comes back31% 42 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk8wins
AwayTebenko2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk83.3%5 of 6
AwayTebenko25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk6Tebenko4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Kovalchuk9Tebenko1n = 10Kovalchuk took 9 of 10
S3Kovalchuk6Tebenko4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk5Tebenko2n = 7Kovalchuk took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukTebenkoK − TBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.633.5+5.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukTebenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime374 / 787 vs 400 / 82847.5%48.3%374 / 787 vs 400 / 828Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.67/Tebenko 2.10
Miss
What we said
54%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 24:30V. Kovalchuk4211115872Y. Tebenko41261111113
WAug 19 · 07:05V. Kovalchuk341111123Y. Tebenko2385100
WAug 18 · 16:35V. Kovalchuk4341711113Y. Tebenko381115661
WAug 14 · 22:30V. Kovalchuk50119611133Y. Tebenko45911113112
WAug 5 · 07:05V. Kovalchuk3811115113Y. Tebenko33691171
WAug 4 · 18:35V. Kovalchuk331111113Y. Tebenko247980
LAug 4 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk28811721Y. Tebenko4111811113
WJul 29 · 09:35V. Kovalchuk341211113Y. Tebenko1910450
WJul 28 · 16:35V. Kovalchuk3961111113Y. Tebenko31117581
WJul 28 · 24:30V. Kovalchuk4561216113Y. Tebenko4011101451
V. Kovalchuk10
LSep 13 · 18:35V. Kovalchuk2.63471131O. Rodin1.4411119113WSep 13 · 16:35R. Novak1.53891191V. Kovalchuk2.3811114113LSep 13 · 15:35V. Kovalchuk1.837860M. Khomenko1.83111193LSep 13 · 14:35Y. Kolos1.83913814123V. Kovalchuk1.8311111112102LSep 13 · 13:05V. Kovalchuk2.50591181Y. Parahailo1.5011117113LSep 13 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.501110451Y. Parahailo1.5071211113LSep 13 · 24:30Y. Tebenko2.20261111113V. Kovalchuk1.6111115872LSep 12 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.5061180O. Rodin1.501113113LSep 12 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.91111186113V. Kovalchuk1.8056111162WSep 12 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.5091111113R. Novak1.50117991
Y. Tebenko10
LSep 14 · 06:35Y. Tebenko2.209149101Y. Vorsuliak1.61111211123LSep 13 · 02:00Y. Tebenko2.503490M. Khomenko1.501111113WSep 13 · 24:30Y. Tebenko2.20261111113V. Kovalchuk1.6111115872WSep 12 · 23:00Y. Tebenko2.10151111113R. Novak1.671313771LSep 12 · 21:30Y. Tebenko2.508830O. Rodin1.501111113WSep 12 · 20:00Y. Tebenko1.831111113Y. Parahailo1.837470LSep 12 · 02:15M. Potapov1.80821111113Y. Tebenko1.9111118992WSep 12 · 01:15Y. Tebenko2.2081111113R. Novak1.61114661LSep 12 · 24:15Y. Tebenko2.007570I. Pytsko1.731111113LSep 11 · 22:45Y. Tebenko1.738750V. Korobko2.001111113
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