TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126211
Played Sep 14Finished
Yaroslav Tebenko
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
91114129111012––
Yaroslav Vorsuliak
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Vorsuliak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Yaroslav Vorsuliak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 88 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Yaroslav Vorsuliak at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 5–9 Yaroslav Vorsuliak Yaroslav Tebenko has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:34What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vorsuliak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Vorsuliak
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1642 vs Vorsuliak 1632
Tebenko
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 60% vs Vorsuliak 40%
Tebenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 50% vs Vorsuliak 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko +1 · Vorsuliak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Vorsuliak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorsuliak form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 2.20 / Vorsuliak 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Vorsuliak)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13126211
Tebenko2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 120 of 253
Down 0–1, comes back31% 42 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 75
Vorsuliak1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 96 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it91% 41 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it80% 70 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko3wins
AwayVorsuliak7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVorsuliak leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko20%1 of 5
AwayVorsuliak60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko5Vorsuliak5n = 10split evenly
S2Tebenko5Vorsuliak5n = 10split evenly
S3Tebenko4Vorsuliak6n = 10Vorsuliak took 6 of 10
S4Tebenko2Vorsuliak7n = 9Vorsuliak took 7 of 9
S5Tebenko2Vorsuliak3n = 5Vorsuliak took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoVorsuliakT − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.743.5−4.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoVorsuliakBasisWin rate · lifetime401 / 830 vs 449 / 88848.3%50.6%401 / 830 vs 449 / 888Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VorsuliakTebenko 2.20/Vorsuliak 1.61
Hit
What we said
58.1%
Vorsuliak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vorsuliak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 06:35Y. Tebenko429149101Y. Vorsuliak46111211123
LJun 2 · 07:05Y. Tebenko47111185122Y. Vorsuliak52971111143
LJun 1 · 13:05Y. Tebenko163670Y. Vorsuliak331111113
LJun 1 · 24:00Y. Tebenko3531131172Y. Vorsuliak45116116113
LMay 1 · 24:05Y. Tebenko341111661Y. Vorsuliak4381311113
LNov 3 · 12:05Y. Tebenko26115461Y. Vorsuliak4191111103
WOct 28 · 09:05Y. Tebenko45711115113Y. Vorsuliak4111761162
LAug 26 · 17:05Y. Tebenko4111811562Y. Vorsuliak46411911113
WAug 20 · 06:35Y. Tebenko515111113113Y. Vorsuliak4211371562
WMay 7 · 06:35Y. Tebenko50111114143Y. Vorsuliak4691312121
Y. Tebenko10
WSep 14 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.67135641Y. Tebenko2.10111111113LSep 13 · 02:00Y. Tebenko2.503490M. Khomenko1.501111113WSep 13 · 24:30Y. Tebenko2.20261111113V. Kovalchuk1.6111115872WSep 12 · 23:00Y. Tebenko2.10151111113R. Novak1.671313771LSep 12 · 21:30Y. Tebenko2.508830O. Rodin1.501111113WSep 12 · 20:00Y. Tebenko1.831111113Y. Parahailo1.837470LSep 12 · 02:15M. Potapov1.80821111113Y. Tebenko1.9111118992WSep 12 · 01:15Y. Tebenko2.2081111113R. Novak1.61114661LSep 12 · 24:15Y. Tebenko2.007570I. Pytsko1.731111113LSep 11 · 22:45Y. Tebenko1.738750V. Korobko2.001111113
Y. Vorsuliak10
WSep 14 · 04:35Y. Parahailo2.2512790Y. Vorsuliak1.571411113WSep 11 · 11:05D. Shchegelskyi2.107660Y. Vorsuliak1.671111113LSep 11 · 10:05V. Krokhmal1.8061111133Y. Vorsuliak1.911199111LSep 11 · 08:35M. Loboda1.4411114113Y. Vorsuliak2.63631191LSep 11 · 06:35V. Slozka1.61118119113Y. Vorsuliak2.2091171182WSep 11 · 04:35I. Hrekh1.447590Y. Vorsuliak2.631111113WSep 10 · 19:05V. Slozka1.57115111182Y. Vorsuliak2.25611413113LSep 10 · 17:35Y. Vorsuliak1.83111151272V. Krokhmal1.831391110113WSep 10 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.2010111081Y. Vorsuliak1.6112912113LSep 10 · 13:35I. Hrekh1.4411113113Y. Vorsuliak2.63751171
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