TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148716
Played Sep 18Finished
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119811118911711
Oleksandr Storozhenko
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Storozhenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Oleksandr Storozhenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 96 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Oleksandr Storozhenko at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 20–18 Oleksandr Storozhenko Oleksandr Storozhenko has won 18 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:40What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Storozhenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-18 in 38
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1519 vs Storozhenko 1579
Storozhenko
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 20% vs Storozhenko 60%
Storozhenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 20% vs Storozhenko 70%
Storozhenko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -1 · Storozhenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Storozhenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.83 / Storozhenko 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Storozhenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13148716
Kovalchuk1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Storozhenko1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk8wins
AwayStorozhenko2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk83.3%5 of 6
AwayStorozhenko25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk6Storozhenko4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Kovalchuk5Storozhenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalchuk5Storozhenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Kovalchuk6Storozhenko3n = 9Kovalchuk took 6 of 9
S5Kovalchuk4Storozhenko0n = 4Kovalchuk took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukStorozhenkoK − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.740.0+4.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukStorozhenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime372 / 777 vs 262 / 50247.9%52.2%372 / 777 vs 262 / 502Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StorozhenkoKovalchuk 1.83/Storozhenko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Storozhenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Storozhenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk371511113O. Storozhenko2513660
WAug 23 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk44111111113O. Storozhenko37781391
WAug 18 · 13:35V. Kovalchuk485101111113O. Storozhenko4911128992
WAug 14 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk501111611113O. Storozhenko4313511592
LAug 11 · 17:05V. Kovalchuk4610151291O. Storozhenko50121314113
WAug 7 · 13:25V. Kovalchuk473111111113O. Storozhenko4611137782
WAug 5 · 09:35V. Kovalchuk5511121110113O. Storozhenko4391471212
WJul 31 · 12:25V. Kovalchuk45111211113O. Storozhenko33614761
WJul 29 · 07:05V. Kovalchuk43111110113O. Storozhenko33691261
LJul 28 · 15:05V. Kovalchuk32114981O. Storozhenko4181111113
V. Kovalchuk10
LSep 14 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk2.106470Y. Vorsuliak1.671111113WSep 14 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.5059111172V. Kovalchuk2.50111172113LSep 14 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk2.6391111782O. Rodin1.44119911113LSep 14 · 07:05M. Khomenko1.73171111113V. Kovalchuk2.001513371LSep 14 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.67135641Y. Tebenko2.10111111113LSep 13 · 18:35V. Kovalchuk2.63471131O. Rodin1.4411119113WSep 13 · 16:35R. Novak1.53891191V. Kovalchuk2.3811114113LSep 13 · 15:35V. Kovalchuk1.837860M. Khomenko1.83111193LSep 13 · 14:35Y. Kolos1.83913814123V. Kovalchuk1.8311111112102LSep 13 · 13:05V. Kovalchuk2.50591181Y. Parahailo1.5011117113
O. Storozhenko10
WSep 18 · 21:30I. Fashchevskyi2.20118111032O. Storozhenko1.61711812113LSep 16 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.8311119113O. Storozhenko1.83891161WSep 16 · 10:05D. Maltsev2.204680O. Storozhenko1.611111113LSep 16 · 08:35Y. Makovka2.5011811113O. Storozhenko1.50911751WSep 16 · 06:35I. Pytsko2.108115111O. Storozhenko1.6711611133WSep 16 · 04:35I. Fashchevskyi2.20761161O. Storozhenko1.6111117113LSep 15 · 19:05I. Fashchevskyi2.2081111123O. Storozhenko1.611168101WSep 15 · 17:35O. Storozhenko1.67115111113I. Pytsko2.1091161182WSep 15 · 15:35Y. Tebenko1.831212121492O. Storozhenko1.8310101416113WSep 15 · 13:35Y. Makovka2.2541131162O. Storozhenko1.57114119113
Upcoming Matches
V. Kovalchuk
Sep 18 · 22:30V. Kovalchuk1.80O. Budnikov1.91—Sep 19 · 24:00V. Kovalchuk1.57I. Pytsko2.25—Sep 19 · 01:00V. Kovalchuk1.33D. Maltsev3.25—Sep 19 · 02:00V. Kovalchuk1.40I. Fashchevskyi2.75—Sep 19 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.38R. Novak1.53—Sep 19 · 22:30V. Kovalchuk2.10M. Khomenko1.67—Sep 19 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.63Y. Parahailo1.44—Sep 20 · 24:30V. Kovalchuk1.73Y. Tebenko2.00—Sep 20 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.10D. Shchegelskyi1.67—
O. Storozhenko
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