TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13149104
Played Sep 18Finished
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1178111181012311
Oleksandr Storozhenko
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:48 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Storozhenko to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Fashchevskyi above · Oleksandr Storozhenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 92 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Oleksandr Storozhenko at 62.1%
92 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Fashchevskyi 20–25 Oleksandr Storozhenko Ivan Fashchevskyi has won 20 of their 45 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:48What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Storozhenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-25 in 45
Storozhenko
Correct
gap of 5 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fashchevskyi 1444 vs Storozhenko 1588
Storozhenko
Correct
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fashchevskyi 20% vs Storozhenko 60%
Storozhenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fashchevskyi 40% vs Storozhenko 70%
Storozhenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fashchevskyi +1 · Storozhenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Storozhenko) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fashchevskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFashchevskyi 2.20 / Storozhenko 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Storozhenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13149104
Fashchevskyi2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 80 of 189
Down 0–1, comes back24% 23 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 45
Storozhenko1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 160 of 286
Up 2–0, closes it88% 57 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it70% 105 of 151
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFashchevskyi3wins
AwayStorozhenko7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStorozhenko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFashchevskyi25%1 of 4
AwayStorozhenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fashchevskyi4Storozhenko6n = 10Storozhenko took 6 of 10
S2Fashchevskyi3Storozhenko7n = 10Storozhenko took 7 of 10
S3Fashchevskyi7Storozhenko3n = 10Fashchevskyi took 7 of 10
S4Fashchevskyi3Storozhenko7n = 10Storozhenko took 7 of 10
S5Fashchevskyi1Storozhenko2n = 3Storozhenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFashchevskyiStorozhenkoF − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.341.3−4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFashchevskyiStorozhenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime289 / 582 vs 263 / 50349.7%52.3%289 / 582 vs 263 / 503Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StorozhenkoFashchevskyi 2.20/Storozhenko 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Storozhenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Storozhenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 04:35I. Fashchevskyi30761161O. Storozhenko4011117113
WSep 15 · 19:05I. Fashchevskyi4281111123O. Storozhenko351168101
LSep 14 · 21:30I. Fashchevskyi361178101O. Storozhenko3951111123
LSep 9 · 10:05I. Fashchevskyi331011481O. Storozhenko4012611113
LSep 7 · 21:15I. Fashchevskyi4511711972O. Storozhenko49811811113
WSep 3 · 21:45I. Fashchevskyi44281112113O. Storozhenko48111181082
LAug 31 · 06:35I. Fashchevskyi4251111782O. Storozhenko45117511113
LAug 30 · 03:00I. Fashchevskyi3411121011O. Storozhenko4581412113
LAug 28 · 21:45I. Fashchevskyi31681161O. Storozhenko3811115113
WAug 26 · 06:05I. Fashchevskyi3611311113O. Storozhenko34811961
I. Fashchevskyi10
WSep 18 · 20:00I. Fashchevskyi2.0011912113I. Pytsko1.738111091LSep 16 · 10:35I. Fashchevskyi2.2071151242Y. Makovka1.611121110113LSep 16 · 09:05I. Fashchevskyi2.63112811102Y. Tebenko1.44711119123LSep 16 · 07:35I. Fashchevskyi1.91111281292I. Pytsko1.804141110113LSep 16 · 06:05I. Fashchevskyi1.807390D. Maltsev1.911111113LSep 16 · 04:35I. Fashchevskyi2.20761161O. Storozhenko1.6111117113WSep 15 · 19:05I. Fashchevskyi2.2081111123O. Storozhenko1.611168101WSep 15 · 17:05D. Maltsev1.83113641I. Fashchevskyi1.8331111113LSep 15 · 15:05Y. Makovka1.60571111113I. Fashchevskyi2.2011117472WSep 15 · 14:05I. Fashchevskyi2.101111163I. Pytsko1.6778140
O. Storozhenko10
WSep 18 · 20:30V. Kovalchuk1.8311811972O. Storozhenko1.83911811113LSep 16 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.8311119113O. Storozhenko1.83891161WSep 16 · 10:05D. Maltsev2.204680O. Storozhenko1.611111113LSep 16 · 08:35Y. Makovka2.5011811113O. Storozhenko1.50911751WSep 16 · 06:35I. Pytsko2.108115111O. Storozhenko1.6711611133WSep 16 · 04:35I. Fashchevskyi2.20761161O. Storozhenko1.6111117113LSep 15 · 19:05I. Fashchevskyi2.2081111123O. Storozhenko1.611168101WSep 15 · 17:35O. Storozhenko1.67115111113I. Pytsko2.1091161182WSep 15 · 15:35Y. Tebenko1.831212121492O. Storozhenko1.8310101416113WSep 15 · 13:35Y. Makovka2.2541131162O. Storozhenko1.57114119113
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