TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136385
Played Sep 16Finished
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111125111210411
Yaroslav Makovka
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:07 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Makovka to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Fashchevskyi above · Yaroslav Makovka below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 84 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Yaroslav Makovka at 58.5%
84 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Fashchevskyi 0–2 Yaroslav Makovka Ivan Fashchevskyi has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:07What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Makovka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Fashchevskyi 1421 vs Makovka 1456
Makovka
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fashchevskyi 20% vs Makovka 40%
Makovka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fashchevskyi 40% vs Makovka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fashchevskyi -4 · Makovka +2
Fashchevskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Makovka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makovka form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFashchevskyi 2.20 / Makovka 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Makovka)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13136385
Fashchevskyi2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 80 of 185
Down 0–1, comes back25% 23 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 44
Makovka1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite78% won 14 of 18
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeFashchevskyi0wins
AwayMakovka2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderMakovka leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricFashchevskyiMakovkaF − MBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match34.540.5−6.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFashchevskyiMakovkaBasisWin rate · lifetime290 / 583 vs 148 / 37949.7%39.1%290 / 583 vs 148 / 379Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.935.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MakovkaFashchevskyi 2.20/Makovka 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Makovka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Makovka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 15 · 15:05I. Fashchevskyi4011117472Y. Makovka45571111113
LSep 14 · 23:30I. Fashchevskyi2981290Y. Makovka361114113
I. Fashchevskyi10
LSep 16 · 09:05I. Fashchevskyi2.63112811102Y. Tebenko1.44711119123LSep 16 · 07:35I. Fashchevskyi1.91111281292I. Pytsko1.804141110113LSep 16 · 06:05I. Fashchevskyi1.807390D. Maltsev1.911111113LSep 16 · 04:35I. Fashchevskyi2.20761161O. Storozhenko1.6111117113WSep 15 · 19:05I. Fashchevskyi2.2081111123O. Storozhenko1.611168101WSep 15 · 17:05D. Maltsev1.83113641I. Fashchevskyi1.8331111113LSep 15 · 15:05Y. Makovka1.60571111113I. Fashchevskyi2.2011117472WSep 15 · 14:05I. Fashchevskyi2.101111163I. Pytsko1.6778140LSep 15 · 13:05Y. Tebenko1.5011119143I. Fashchevskyi2.509411121WSep 15 · 03:00D. Maltsev1.808711101I. Fashchevskyi1.9111118123
Y. Makovka10
WSep 16 · 09:35Y. Makovka2.751111163I. Pytsko1.4059140WSep 16 · 08:35Y. Makovka2.5011811113O. Storozhenko1.50911751LSep 16 · 07:05Y. Makovka2.509980Y. Tebenko1.501111113LSep 16 · 05:05Y. Makovka2.751181091D. Maltsev1.4041112113LSep 15 · 18:05Y. Makovka2.004660D. Maltsev1.731111113LSep 15 · 16:35Y. Makovka2.106950Y. Tebenko1.671111113WSep 15 · 15:05Y. Makovka1.60571111113I. Fashchevskyi2.2011117472LSep 15 · 13:35Y. Makovka2.2541131162O. Storozhenko1.57114119113WSep 15 · 12:05Y. Makovka4.0011118113I. Pytsko1.22591191LSep 15 · 02:30Y. Makovka3.254950I. Pytsko1.331111113
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