TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131327
Played Sep 15Finished
Yaroslav Makovka
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611911511––––
Yaroslav Tebenko
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:44 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Makovka above · Yaroslav Tebenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 53 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 58.2%
53 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Makovka 3–2 Yaroslav Tebenko Yaroslav Tebenko has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:44What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Tebenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Makovka 1473 vs Tebenko 1630
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 157 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Makovka 40% vs Tebenko 60%
Tebenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Makovka 60% vs Tebenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Makovka +1 · Tebenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Tebenko) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMakovka 2.10 / Tebenko 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Tebenko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13131327
Makovka2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 44 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back22% 19 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 55
Tebenko1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 52 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it81% 35 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMakovka3wins
AwayTebenko2wins
4 of 5 to a deciderMakovka leads 3–2, and 4 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMakovka66.7%2 of 3
AwayTebenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Makovka3Tebenko2n = 5Makovka took 3 of 5
S2Makovka1Tebenko4n = 5Tebenko took 4 of 5
S3Makovka3Tebenko2n = 5Makovka took 3 of 5
S4Makovka2Tebenko3n = 5Tebenko took 3 of 5
S5Makovka3Tebenko1n = 4Makovka took 3 of 4
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home360%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricMakovkaTebenkoM − TBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match47.844.2+3.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMakovkaTebenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 373 vs 404 / 83639.1%48.3%146 / 373 vs 404 / 836Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoMakovka 2.10/Tebenko 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 10 · 11:05Y. Makovka631191011223Y. Tebenko50211125202
WSep 9 · 12:35Y. Makovka46119114113Y. Tebenko4181131182
LSep 8 · 23:30Y. Makovka31961151Y. Tebenko3911116113
LSep 3 · 11:05Y. Makovka48111151472Y. Tebenko48551116113
WSep 2 · 17:05Y. Makovka51971311113Y. Tebenko43111111642
Y. Makovka10
WSep 15 · 15:05Y. Makovka1.60571111113I. Fashchevskyi2.2011117472LSep 15 · 13:35Y. Makovka2.2541131162O. Storozhenko1.57114119113WSep 15 · 12:05Y. Makovka4.0011118113I. Pytsko1.22591191LSep 15 · 02:30Y. Makovka3.254950I. Pytsko1.331111113LSep 15 · 24:30O. Storozhenko1.731111108153Y. Makovka2.00971211132WSep 14 · 23:30Y. Makovka1.801114113I. Fashchevskyi1.9181290WSep 14 · 22:30V. Korobko1.91561111Y. Makovka1.8011116113LSep 14 · 21:00Y. Makovka1.91811491D. Maltsev1.8011411113WAug 30 · 10:30O. Blashkun1.40561171Y. Makovka2.7511117113WAug 30 · 09:30Y. Makovka3.001111113R. Sopivnyk1.367420
Y. Tebenko10
LSep 15 · 15:35Y. Tebenko1.831212121492O. Storozhenko1.8310101416113WSep 15 · 14:35D. Maltsev1.837350Y. Tebenko1.831111113WSep 15 · 13:05Y. Tebenko1.5011119143I. Fashchevskyi2.509411121WSep 14 · 11:35Y. Tebenko3.0011125133O. Rodin1.3671011111LSep 14 · 09:35M. Khomenko1.40117118113Y. Tebenko2.7531181172LSep 14 · 07:35Y. Parahailo2.001311113Y. Tebenko1.7311190LSep 14 · 06:35Y. Tebenko2.209149101Y. Vorsuliak1.61111211123WSep 14 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.67135641Y. Tebenko2.10111111113LSep 13 · 02:00Y. Tebenko2.503490M. Khomenko1.501111113WSep 13 · 24:30Y. Tebenko2.20261111113V. Kovalchuk1.6111115872
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