TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130991
Played Sep 15Finished
Yaroslav Tebenko
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191149111412––
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:29 and never touched — 65.6% is still 65.6%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
65.6%
65.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Ivan Fashchevskyi below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 81 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 65.6%
81 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 21–8 Ivan Fashchevskyi Ivan Fashchevskyi has won 8 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:29What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Tebenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-8 in 29
Tebenko
Correct
gap of 13 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1629 vs Fashchevskyi 1414
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 214 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 40% vs Fashchevskyi 20%
Tebenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 50% vs Fashchevskyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko +1 · Fashchevskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Tebenko) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fashchevskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 1.50 / Fashchevskyi 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Tebenko)+4.8pp
Setka Cup · #13130991
Tebenko1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 52 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it81% 35 of 43
Fashchevskyi2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 78 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back24% 22 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko9wins
AwayFashchevskyi1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTebenko leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko100%6 of 6
AwayFashchevskyi25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko6Fashchevskyi4n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S2Tebenko8Fashchevskyi2n = 10Tebenko took 8 of 10
S3Tebenko4Fashchevskyi6n = 10Fashchevskyi took 6 of 10
S4Tebenko5Fashchevskyi2n = 7Tebenko took 5 of 7
S5Tebenko4Fashchevskyi0n = 4Tebenko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoFashchevskyiT − FBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.334.1+8.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoFashchevskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime402 / 833 vs 287 / 57448.3%50%402 / 833 vs 287 / 574Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoTebenko 1.50/Fashchevskyi 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 11:05Y. Tebenko341111123I. Fashchevskyi2064100
WSep 4 · 03:15Y. Tebenko361114113I. Fashchevskyi2281220
WSep 2 · 09:05Y. Tebenko47811116113I. Fashchevskyi3811641162
WAug 31 · 11:05Y. Tebenko3811115113I. Fashchevskyi29921171
WAug 29 · 24:45Y. Tebenko529111011113I. Fashchevskyi4111712652
WAug 26 · 09:05Y. Tebenko581112915113I. Fashchevskyi50514111372
WAug 25 · 15:35Y. Tebenko4111118113I. Fashchevskyi28851141
WAug 24 · 21:00Y. Tebenko474111110113I. Fashchevskyi4111651272
WAug 20 · 21:15Y. Tebenko4112116123I. Fashchevskyi3610511101
LAug 19 · 05:35Y. Tebenko2989120I. Fashchevskyi361111143
Y. Tebenko10
WSep 15 · 14:35D. Maltsev1.837350Y. Tebenko1.831111113WSep 14 · 11:35Y. Tebenko3.0011125133O. Rodin1.3671011111LSep 14 · 09:35M. Khomenko1.40117118113Y. Tebenko2.7531181172LSep 14 · 07:35Y. Parahailo2.001311113Y. Tebenko1.7311190LSep 14 · 06:35Y. Tebenko2.209149101Y. Vorsuliak1.61111211123WSep 14 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.67135641Y. Tebenko2.10111111113LSep 13 · 02:00Y. Tebenko2.503490M. Khomenko1.501111113WSep 13 · 24:30Y. Tebenko2.20261111113V. Kovalchuk1.6111115872WSep 12 · 23:00Y. Tebenko2.10151111113R. Novak1.671313771LSep 12 · 21:30Y. Tebenko2.508830O. Rodin1.501111113
I. Fashchevskyi10
LSep 15 · 15:05Y. Makovka1.60571111113I. Fashchevskyi2.2011117472WSep 15 · 14:05I. Fashchevskyi2.101111163I. Pytsko1.6778140WSep 15 · 03:00D. Maltsev1.808711101I. Fashchevskyi1.9111118123LSep 15 · 01:30I. Fashchevskyi2.00118791I. Pytsko1.7371111113LSep 14 · 23:30Y. Makovka1.801114113I. Fashchevskyi1.9181290LSep 14 · 21:30O. Storozhenko1.6751111123I. Fashchevskyi2.101178101LSep 14 · 20:30V. Korobko1.5711812113I. Fashchevskyi2.256111071LSep 11 · 18:55M. Slozka1.731171110113I. Fashchevskyi2.0091151292WSep 11 · 17:25I. Fashchevskyi1.91111198113D. Maltsev1.8088111192WSep 11 · 15:25V. Kuzmych2.10148511102I. Fashchevskyi1.671211116123
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