TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131277
Played Sep 15Finished
Denys Maltsev
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711311511––––
Yaroslav Tebenko
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Maltsev above · Yaroslav Tebenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 48 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 54.0%
48 points played in total.
H2H Denys Maltsev 44–55 Yaroslav Tebenko Denys Maltsev has won 44 of their 99 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:31What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Tebenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
44-55 in 99
Tebenko
Correct
gap of 11 in 99, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maltsev 1498 vs Tebenko 1634
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 136 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maltsev 60% vs Tebenko 40%
Maltsev
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maltsev 70% vs Tebenko 50%
Maltsev
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maltsev -2 · Tebenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tebenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tebenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaltsev 1.83 / Tebenko 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Tebenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13131277
Maltsev1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Tebenko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaltsev5wins
AwayTebenko5wins
8 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaltsev40%2 of 5
AwayTebenko40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maltsev5Tebenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Maltsev4Tebenko6n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S3Maltsev9Tebenko1n = 10Maltsev took 9 of 10
S4Maltsev4Tebenko5n = 9Tebenko took 5 of 9
S5Maltsev3Tebenko5n = 8Tebenko took 5 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaltsevTebenkoM − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.643.2+1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaltsevTebenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime454 / 883 vs 403 / 83451.4%48.3%454 / 883 vs 403 / 834Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoMaltsev 1.83/Tebenko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 13:05D. Maltsev481151110113Y. Tebenko4141151292
WSep 6 · 02:30D. Maltsev331111113Y. Tebenko128220
LSep 4 · 16:25D. Maltsev581012129152Y. Tebenko6012101011173
LAug 31 · 08:05D. Maltsev4111811922Y. Tebenko48911611113
WAug 29 · 02:45D. Maltsev3521111113Y. Tebenko35117981
WAug 26 · 11:05D. Maltsev44611115113Y. Tebenko4211561192
LAug 25 · 14:35D. Maltsev4598111162Y. Tebenko50111189113
WAug 24 · 23:30D. Maltsev49881111113Y. Tebenko4711119882
LAug 20 · 23:45D. Maltsev481111115102Y. Tebenko44413411123
LAug 19 · 11:05D. Maltsev45111051272Y. Tebenko539121110113
D. Maltsev10
LSep 15 · 12:35D. Maltsev1.83613961O. Storozhenko1.83111111113LSep 15 · 03:00D. Maltsev1.808711101I. Fashchevskyi1.9111118123WSep 15 · 01:00V. Korobko3.506680D. Maltsev1.281111113WSep 14 · 23:00O. Storozhenko1.734260D. Maltsev2.001111113WSep 14 · 22:00D. Maltsev2.508111312113I. Pytsko1.50118111492WSep 14 · 21:00Y. Makovka1.91811491D. Maltsev1.8011411113WSep 12 · 11:25D. Maltsev1.5791111113M. Slozka2.25115771WSep 12 · 09:25S. Prus3.255450D. Maltsev1.331111113LSep 12 · 07:25D. Palii1.8351112113D. Maltsev1.831131041WSep 12 · 06:25D. Maltsev2.25111211113T. Gil1.57814781
Y. Tebenko10
WSep 15 · 13:05Y. Tebenko1.5011119143I. Fashchevskyi2.509411121WSep 14 · 11:35Y. Tebenko3.0011125133O. Rodin1.3671011111LSep 14 · 09:35M. Khomenko1.40117118113Y. Tebenko2.7531181172LSep 14 · 07:35Y. Parahailo2.001311113Y. Tebenko1.7311190LSep 14 · 06:35Y. Tebenko2.209149101Y. Vorsuliak1.61111211123WSep 14 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.67135641Y. Tebenko2.10111111113LSep 13 · 02:00Y. Tebenko2.503490M. Khomenko1.501111113WSep 13 · 24:30Y. Tebenko2.20261111113V. Kovalchuk1.6111115872WSep 12 · 23:00Y. Tebenko2.10151111113R. Novak1.671313771LSep 12 · 21:30Y. Tebenko2.508830O. Rodin1.501111113
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