TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126183
Played Sep 14Finished
Yurii Parahailo
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311111119––––
Yaroslav Tebenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:21 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYurii Parahailo above · Yaroslav Tebenko below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 54.1%
56 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Parahailo 29–33 Yaroslav Tebenko Yurii Parahailo has won 29 of their 62 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:21What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Tebenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-33 in 62
Tebenko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Parahailo 1538 vs Tebenko 1642
Tebenko
Wrong
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Parahailo 0% vs Tebenko 60%
Tebenko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Parahailo 30% vs Tebenko 50%
Tebenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Parahailo -5 · Tebenko -1
Parahailo
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tebenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Parahailo form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParahailo 2.00 / Tebenko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Tebenko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13126183
Parahailo2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 66 of 182
Down 0–1, comes back15% 14 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 61
Tebenko1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 53 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it80% 36 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeParahailo5wins
AwayTebenko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeParahailo100%5 of 5
AwayTebenko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Parahailo5Tebenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Parahailo4Tebenko6n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S3Parahailo4Tebenko6n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S4Parahailo3Tebenko4n = 7Tebenko took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricParahailoTebenkoP − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.136.2−1.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParahailoTebenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime405 / 809 vs 401 / 83050.1%48.3%405 / 809 vs 401 / 830Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoParahailo 2.00/Tebenko 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Parahailo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 20:00Y. Parahailo187470Y. Tebenko331111113
WAug 31 · 09:05Y. Parahailo48118117113Y. Tebenko4241181182
LAug 26 · 07:05Y. Parahailo31691151Y. Tebenko4111118113
WAug 19 · 09:05Y. Parahailo48115811133Y. Tebenko46411119112
LAug 18 · 18:35Y. Parahailo30651181Y. Tebenko4111118113
WAug 15 · 24:00Y. Parahailo3911116113Y. Tebenko23541131
LAug 12 · 07:05Y. Parahailo405161091Y. Tebenko48111412113
WAug 10 · 21:00Y. Parahailo331111113Y. Tebenko229760
WAug 8 · 08:55Y. Parahailo4111118113Y. Tebenko32991131
LAug 5 · 09:05Y. Parahailo2361070Y. Tebenko341112113
Y. Parahailo10
LSep 14 · 06:05Y. Parahailo2.633870O. Rodin1.441111113LSep 14 · 04:35Y. Parahailo2.2512790Y. Vorsuliak1.571411113LSep 13 · 19:05Y. Parahailo3.7571190M. Khomenko1.251113103LSep 13 · 17:05Y. Kolos1.361111113Y. Parahailo3.006870LSep 13 · 15:05R. Novak1.831461110113Y. Parahailo1.83121191292LSep 13 · 14:05Y. Parahailo2.388980O. Rodin1.531111113WSep 13 · 13:05V. Kovalchuk2.50591181Y. Parahailo1.5011117113WSep 13 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.501110451Y. Parahailo1.5071211113WSep 13 · 01:30O. Rodin1.5096111142Y. Parahailo2.50111143113LSep 13 · 24:00M. Khomenko1.281111113Y. Parahailo3.505760
Y. Tebenko10
LSep 14 · 06:35Y. Tebenko2.209149101Y. Vorsuliak1.61111211123WSep 14 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.67135641Y. Tebenko2.10111111113LSep 13 · 02:00Y. Tebenko2.503490M. Khomenko1.501111113WSep 13 · 24:30Y. Tebenko2.20261111113V. Kovalchuk1.6111115872WSep 12 · 23:00Y. Tebenko2.10151111113R. Novak1.671313771LSep 12 · 21:30Y. Tebenko2.508830O. Rodin1.501111113WSep 12 · 20:00Y. Tebenko1.831111113Y. Parahailo1.837470LSep 12 · 02:15M. Potapov1.80821111113Y. Tebenko1.9111118992WSep 12 · 01:15Y. Tebenko2.2081111113R. Novak1.61114661LSep 12 · 24:15Y. Tebenko2.007570I. Pytsko1.731111113
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