TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126549
Played Sep 14Finished
Yaroslav Tebenko
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11712105111311––
Oleksii Rodin
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:09 and never touched — 72.3% is still 72.3%
Graded at full timeOleksii Rodin to win
72.3%
72.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Oleksii Rodin below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 80 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Oleksii Rodin at 72.3%
80 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 4–17 Oleksii Rodin Yaroslav Tebenko has won 4 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:09What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Rodin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-17 in 21
Rodin
Wrong
gap of 13 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1616 vs Rodin 1640
Rodin
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 20% vs Rodin 60%
Rodin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 40% vs Rodin 70%
Rodin
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko -3 · Rodin -1
Tebenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Rodin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rodin form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 3.00 / Rodin 1.36
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Rodin)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13126549
Tebenko3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 120 of 253
Down 0–1, comes back31% 42 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 75
Rodin1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 144 of 230
Up 2–0, closes it96% 71 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it80% 98 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko2wins
AwayRodin8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRodin leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayRodin88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko1Rodin9n = 10Rodin took 9 of 10
S2Tebenko4Rodin6n = 10Rodin took 6 of 10
S3Tebenko3Rodin7n = 10Rodin took 7 of 10
S4Tebenko5Rodin1n = 6Tebenko took 5 of 6
S5Tebenko0Rodin3n = 3Rodin took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoRodinT − RBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match31.837.7−5.9per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoRodinBasisWin rate · lifetime401 / 832 vs 183 / 30948.2%59.2%401 / 832 vs 183 / 309Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RodinTebenko 3.00/Rodin 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.3%
Rodin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 21:30Y. Tebenko198830O. Rodin331111113
WJul 29 · 11:35Y. Tebenko4071111113O. Rodin25113561
LJul 28 · 18:35Y. Tebenko238870O. Rodin331111113
LJul 28 · 02:30Y. Tebenko36811891O. Rodin3911611113
LJul 25 · 21:15Y. Tebenko3731131192O. Rodin44116115113
LJul 22 · 08:05Y. Tebenko4591381142O. Rodin511111117113
LJul 21 · 17:08Y. Tebenko4296111152O. Rodin49111197113
LJul 21 · 14:35Y. Tebenko167810O. Rodin331111113
WJul 15 · 06:35Y. Tebenko4211911113O. Rodin36911881
LJul 14 · 18:35Y. Tebenko1841040O. Rodin341112113
Y. Tebenko10
LSep 14 · 09:35M. Khomenko1.40117118113Y. Tebenko2.7531181172LSep 14 · 07:35Y. Parahailo2.001311113Y. Tebenko1.7311190LSep 14 · 06:35Y. Tebenko2.209149101Y. Vorsuliak1.61111211123WSep 14 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.67135641Y. Tebenko2.10111111113LSep 13 · 02:00Y. Tebenko2.503490M. Khomenko1.501111113WSep 13 · 24:30Y. Tebenko2.20261111113V. Kovalchuk1.6111115872WSep 12 · 23:00Y. Tebenko2.10151111113R. Novak1.671313771LSep 12 · 21:30Y. Tebenko2.508830O. Rodin1.501111113WSep 12 · 20:00Y. Tebenko1.831111113Y. Parahailo1.837470LSep 12 · 02:15M. Potapov1.80821111113Y. Tebenko1.9111118992
O. Rodin10
LSep 14 · 10:05O. Rodin1.8381111172Y. Vorsuliak1.83111189113WSep 14 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk2.6391111782O. Rodin1.44119911113WSep 14 · 06:05Y. Parahailo2.633870O. Rodin1.441111113LSep 14 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.80141198113O. Rodin1.91128111192WSep 13 · 18:35V. Kovalchuk2.63471131O. Rodin1.4411119113LSep 13 · 17:35M. Khomenko1.8311118102O. Rodin1.836411101WSep 13 · 16:05Y. Kolos2.108860O. Rodin1.67111162WSep 13 · 14:05Y. Parahailo2.388980O. Rodin1.531111113WSep 13 · 12:05R. Novak2.636680O. Rodin1.441111113WSep 12 · 21:30Y. Tebenko2.508830O. Rodin1.501111113
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