TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126162
Played Sep 14Finished
Maksym Khomenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1412118911811119
Oleksii Rodin
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:12 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaksym Khomenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Khomenko above · Oleksii Rodin below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 104 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Maksym Khomenko at 54.0%
104 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Khomenko 7–10 Oleksii Rodin Maksym Khomenko has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 12h before this match
Khomenko beat Rodin 2-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:12What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Khomenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-10 in 17
Rodin
Wrong
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khomenko 1731 vs Rodin 1642
Khomenko
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khomenko 100% vs Rodin 80%
Khomenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khomenko 90% vs Rodin 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Khomenko +5 · Rodin +1
Khomenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Khomenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rodin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhomenko 1.80 / Rodin 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Khomenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13126162
Khomenko1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite67% won 75 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it100% 45 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it87% 54 of 62
Rodin1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 26 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back21% 4 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhomenko3wins
AwayRodin7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderRodin leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhomenko60%3 of 5
AwayRodin100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khomenko5Rodin5n = 10split evenly
S2Khomenko4Rodin6n = 10Rodin took 6 of 10
S3Khomenko7Rodin3n = 10Khomenko took 7 of 10
S4Khomenko5Rodin2n = 7Khomenko took 5 of 7
S5Khomenko0Rodin6n = 6Rodin took 6 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away660%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhomenkoRodinK − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.039.5−0.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhomenkoRodinBasisWin rate · lifetime469 / 851 vs 181 / 30555.1%59.3%469 / 851 vs 181 / 305Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhomenkoKhomenko 1.80/Rodin 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Khomenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Khomenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 20:30M. Khomenko4251111962O. Rodin46119411113
WSep 7 · 05:05M. Khomenko331111113O. Rodin193880
WSep 6 · 17:05M. Khomenko351113113O. Rodin2161140
LAug 30 · 16:05M. Khomenko4369111162O. Rodin4311115883
LAug 24 · 05:05M. Khomenko226880O. Rodin331111113
LAug 23 · 17:05M. Khomenko49116137122O. Rodin525111111143
LAug 23 · 15:05M. Khomenko46511611132O. Rodin52118117153
LAug 23 · 01:00M. Khomenko4011951142O. Rodin42611113113
WAug 17 · 05:05M. Khomenko4013511113O. Rodin401111991
LAug 16 · 17:29M. Khomenko4084111162O. Rodin47111177113
M. Khomenko10
WSep 13 · 19:05Y. Parahailo3.7571190M. Khomenko1.251113103WSep 13 · 17:35M. Khomenko1.8311118102O. Rodin1.836411101WSep 13 · 15:35V. Kovalchuk1.837860M. Khomenko1.83111193WSep 13 · 13:35R. Novak1.8091111882M. Khomenko1.91116711113WSep 13 · 12:35Y. Kolos4.0093110M. Khomenko1.221111133WSep 13 · 02:00Y. Tebenko2.503490M. Khomenko1.501111113WSep 13 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.001111113R. Novak1.739570WSep 13 · 24:00M. Khomenko1.281111113Y. Parahailo3.505760WSep 12 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.91111186113V. Kovalchuk1.8056111162LSep 12 · 20:30M. Khomenko1.7351111962O. Rodin2.00119411113
O. Rodin10
WSep 13 · 18:35V. Kovalchuk2.63471131O. Rodin1.4411119113LSep 13 · 17:35M. Khomenko1.8311118102O. Rodin1.836411101WSep 13 · 16:05Y. Kolos2.108860O. Rodin1.67111162WSep 13 · 14:05Y. Parahailo2.388980O. Rodin1.531111113WSep 13 · 12:05R. Novak2.636680O. Rodin1.441111113WSep 13 · 03:00R. Novak2.631178101O. Rodin1.4491111123LSep 13 · 01:30O. Rodin1.5096111142Y. Parahailo2.50111143113WSep 12 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.5061180O. Rodin1.501113113WSep 12 · 21:30Y. Tebenko2.508830O. Rodin1.501111113WSep 12 · 20:30M. Khomenko1.7351111962O. Rodin2.00119411113
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