TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131309
Played Sep 15Finished
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111161181210––
Oleksandr Storozhenko
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:41 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Storozhenko to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Fashchevskyi above · Oleksandr Storozhenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 77 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Oleksandr Storozhenko at 58.6%
77 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Fashchevskyi 19–24 Oleksandr Storozhenko Ivan Fashchevskyi has won 19 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:41What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Storozhenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-24 in 43
Storozhenko
Wrong
gap of 5 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fashchevskyi 1421 vs Storozhenko 1584
Storozhenko
Wrong
both rated, 163 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fashchevskyi 60% vs Storozhenko 80%
Storozhenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fashchevskyi 30% vs Storozhenko 60%
Storozhenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fashchevskyi +1 · Storozhenko +4
Storozhenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Storozhenko) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Storozhenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFashchevskyi 2.20 / Storozhenko 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Storozhenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13131309
Fashchevskyi2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 78 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back24% 22 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43
Storozhenko1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 155 of 279
Up 2–0, closes it87% 55 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it69% 100 of 145
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFashchevskyi3wins
AwayStorozhenko7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStorozhenko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFashchevskyi20%1 of 5
AwayStorozhenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fashchevskyi5Storozhenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Fashchevskyi3Storozhenko7n = 10Storozhenko took 7 of 10
S3Fashchevskyi6Storozhenko4n = 10Fashchevskyi took 6 of 10
S4Fashchevskyi3Storozhenko7n = 10Storozhenko took 7 of 10
S5Fashchevskyi1Storozhenko2n = 3Storozhenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFashchevskyiStorozhenkoF − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.241.3−4.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFashchevskyiStorozhenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime289 / 578 vs 260 / 49850%52.2%289 / 578 vs 260 / 498Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StorozhenkoFashchevskyi 2.20/Storozhenko 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
Storozhenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fashchevskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 21:30I. Fashchevskyi361178101O. Storozhenko3951111123
LSep 9 · 10:05I. Fashchevskyi331011481O. Storozhenko4012611113
LSep 7 · 21:15I. Fashchevskyi4511711972O. Storozhenko49811811113
WSep 3 · 21:45I. Fashchevskyi44281112113O. Storozhenko48111181082
LAug 31 · 06:35I. Fashchevskyi4251111782O. Storozhenko45117511113
LAug 30 · 03:00I. Fashchevskyi3411121011O. Storozhenko4581412113
LAug 28 · 21:45I. Fashchevskyi31681161O. Storozhenko3811115113
WAug 26 · 06:05I. Fashchevskyi3611311113O. Storozhenko34811961
LAug 25 · 17:38I. Fashchevskyi30118651O. Storozhenko4181111113
WAug 25 · 16:35I. Fashchevskyi4181111113O. Storozhenko34115991
I. Fashchevskyi10
WSep 15 · 17:05D. Maltsev1.83113641I. Fashchevskyi1.8331111113LSep 15 · 15:05Y. Makovka1.60571111113I. Fashchevskyi2.2011117472WSep 15 · 14:05I. Fashchevskyi2.101111163I. Pytsko1.6778140LSep 15 · 13:05Y. Tebenko1.5011119143I. Fashchevskyi2.509411121WSep 15 · 03:00D. Maltsev1.808711101I. Fashchevskyi1.9111118123LSep 15 · 01:30I. Fashchevskyi2.00118791I. Pytsko1.7371111113LSep 14 · 23:30Y. Makovka1.801114113I. Fashchevskyi1.9181290LSep 14 · 21:30O. Storozhenko1.6751111123I. Fashchevskyi2.101178101LSep 14 · 20:30V. Korobko1.5711812113I. Fashchevskyi2.256111071LSep 11 · 18:55M. Slozka1.731171110113I. Fashchevskyi2.0091151292
O. Storozhenko10
WSep 15 · 17:35O. Storozhenko1.67115111113I. Pytsko2.1091161182WSep 15 · 15:35Y. Tebenko1.831212121492O. Storozhenko1.8310101416113WSep 15 · 13:35Y. Makovka2.2541131162O. Storozhenko1.57114119113WSep 15 · 12:35D. Maltsev1.83613961O. Storozhenko1.83111111113LSep 15 · 02:00O. Storozhenko1.735680V. Korobko2.001111113WSep 15 · 24:30O. Storozhenko1.731111108153Y. Makovka2.00971211132LSep 14 · 23:00O. Storozhenko1.734260D. Maltsev2.001111113WSep 14 · 21:30O. Storozhenko1.6751111123I. Fashchevskyi2.101178101LSep 14 · 20:00O. Storozhenko1.61118111372I. Pytsko2.20611915113LSep 12 · 03:15R. Novak1.53111511113O. Storozhenko2.38917771
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