TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136643
Played Sep 16Finished
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711311911––––
Denys Maltsev
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Maltsev to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Fashchevskyi above · Denys Maltsev below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 52 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Denys Maltsev at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Fashchevskyi 29–27 Denys Maltsev Denys Maltsev has won 27 of their 56 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:11What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Fashchevskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-27 in 56
Fashchevskyi
Wrong
gap of 2 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fashchevskyi 1434 vs Maltsev 1512
Maltsev
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fashchevskyi 60% vs Maltsev 40%
Fashchevskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fashchevskyi 40% vs Maltsev 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fashchevskyi -1 · Maltsev +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Maltsev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maltsev form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFashchevskyi 1.80 / Maltsev 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Maltsev)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13136643
Fashchevskyi1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 72 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it81% 50 of 62
Maltsev1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 77 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back19% 15 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFashchevskyi6wins
AwayMaltsev4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderFashchevskyi leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFashchevskyi83.3%5 of 6
AwayMaltsev75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fashchevskyi6Maltsev4n = 10Fashchevskyi took 6 of 10
S2Fashchevskyi7Maltsev3n = 10Fashchevskyi took 7 of 10
S3Fashchevskyi3Maltsev7n = 10Maltsev took 7 of 10
S4Fashchevskyi4Maltsev4n = 8split evenly
S5Fashchevskyi2Maltsev1n = 3Fashchevskyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFashchevskyiMaltsevF − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.936.6+1.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFashchevskyiMaltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime290 / 581 vs 457 / 88949.9%51.4%290 / 581 vs 457 / 889Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaltsevFashchevskyi 1.80/Maltsev 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Maltsev · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Maltsev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 06:05I. Fashchevskyi197390D. Maltsev331111113
WSep 15 · 17:05I. Fashchevskyi3631111113D. Maltsev24113641
WSep 15 · 03:00I. Fashchevskyi4211118123D. Maltsev368711101
WSep 11 · 17:25I. Fashchevskyi50111198113D. Maltsev4788111192
LSep 9 · 04:35I. Fashchevskyi40111151212D. Maltsev49671114113
WSep 7 · 23:15I. Fashchevskyi4111811113D. Maltsev31411971
LAug 31 · 10:05I. Fashchevskyi321111281D. Maltsev4113611113
LAug 30 · 01:30I. Fashchevskyi33811591D. Maltsev4111811113
WAug 28 · 20:15I. Fashchevskyi531181211113D. Maltsev4681114582
WAug 26 · 04:35I. Fashchevskyi331111113D. Maltsev188550
I. Fashchevskyi10
LSep 16 · 04:35I. Fashchevskyi2.20761161O. Storozhenko1.6111117113WSep 15 · 19:05I. Fashchevskyi2.2081111123O. Storozhenko1.611168101WSep 15 · 17:05D. Maltsev1.83113641I. Fashchevskyi1.8331111113LSep 15 · 15:05Y. Makovka1.60571111113I. Fashchevskyi2.2011117472WSep 15 · 14:05I. Fashchevskyi2.101111163I. Pytsko1.6778140LSep 15 · 13:05Y. Tebenko1.5011119143I. Fashchevskyi2.509411121WSep 15 · 03:00D. Maltsev1.808711101I. Fashchevskyi1.9111118123LSep 15 · 01:30I. Fashchevskyi2.00118791I. Pytsko1.7371111113LSep 14 · 23:30Y. Makovka1.801114113I. Fashchevskyi1.9181290LSep 14 · 21:30O. Storozhenko1.6751111123I. Fashchevskyi2.101178101
D. Maltsev10
WSep 16 · 05:05Y. Makovka2.751181091D. Maltsev1.4041112113WSep 15 · 18:05Y. Makovka2.004660D. Maltsev1.731111113LSep 15 · 17:05D. Maltsev1.83113641I. Fashchevskyi1.8331111113LSep 15 · 16:05D. Maltsev2.3891160I. Pytsko1.531113113LSep 15 · 14:35D. Maltsev1.837350Y. Tebenko1.831111113LSep 15 · 12:35D. Maltsev1.83613961O. Storozhenko1.83111111113LSep 15 · 03:00D. Maltsev1.808711101I. Fashchevskyi1.9111118123WSep 15 · 01:00V. Korobko3.506680D. Maltsev1.281111113WSep 14 · 23:00O. Storozhenko1.734260D. Maltsev2.001111113WSep 14 · 22:00D. Maltsev2.508111312113I. Pytsko1.50118111492
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