TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126377
Played Sep 14Finished
Maksym Khomenko
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
17151113113117––
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:33 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeMaksym Khomenko to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Khomenko above · Vladyslav Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 17-15
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 88 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Maksym Khomenko at 56.5%
88 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Khomenko 28–27 Vladyslav Kovalchuk Vladyslav Kovalchuk has won 27 of their 55 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:33What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Khomenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-27 in 55
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khomenko 1740 vs Kovalchuk 1480
Khomenko
Correct
both rated, 260 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khomenko 100% vs Kovalchuk 20%
Khomenko
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khomenko 100% vs Kovalchuk 10%
Khomenko
Correct
90pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Khomenko +5 · Kovalchuk -2
Khomenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Khomenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhomenko 1.73 / Kovalchuk 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Khomenko)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13126377
Khomenko1.73
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As favourite67% won 75 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it100% 45 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it87% 54 of 62
Kovalchuk2.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 98 of 224
Down 0–1, comes back23% 25 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhomenko6wins
AwayKovalchuk4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKhomenko leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhomenko60%3 of 5
AwayKovalchuk40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khomenko5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Khomenko7Kovalchuk3n = 10Khomenko took 7 of 10
S3Khomenko3Kovalchuk7n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S4Khomenko5Kovalchuk2n = 7Khomenko took 5 of 7
S5Khomenko3Kovalchuk2n = 5Khomenko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhomenkoKovalchukKhomenko − KovalchukBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.135.7+2.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhomenkoKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime470 / 852 vs 372 / 78355.2%47.5%470 / 852 vs 372 / 783Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhomenkoKhomenko 1.73/Kovalchuk 2.00
Hit
What we said
56.5%
Khomenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Khomenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 15:35M. Khomenko31111193V. Kovalchuk217860
WSep 12 · 22:30M. Khomenko47111186113V. Kovalchuk3956111162
WAug 24 · 07:05M. Khomenko351111133V. Kovalchuk2164110
WAug 23 · 13:35M. Khomenko506111012113V. Kovalchuk44118121032
LAug 22 · 22:30M. Khomenko2696110V. Kovalchuk351111133
LAug 17 · 08:05M. Khomenko3511171152V. Kovalchuk48811117113
WAug 16 · 24:30M. Khomenko4491211123V. Kovalchuk3311102101
WAug 10 · 07:05M. Khomenko44611511113V. Kovalchuk3311211452
LAug 9 · 14:35M. Khomenko3911581142V. Kovalchuk46911114113
LAug 2 · 02:00M. Khomenko30711661V. Kovalchuk3711411113
M. Khomenko10
WSep 14 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.80141198113O. Rodin1.91128111192WSep 13 · 19:05Y. Parahailo3.7571190M. Khomenko1.251113103WSep 13 · 17:35M. Khomenko1.8311118102O. Rodin1.836411101WSep 13 · 15:35V. Kovalchuk1.837860M. Khomenko1.83111193WSep 13 · 13:35R. Novak1.8091111882M. Khomenko1.91116711113WSep 13 · 12:35Y. Kolos4.0093110M. Khomenko1.221111133WSep 13 · 02:00Y. Tebenko2.503490M. Khomenko1.501111113WSep 13 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.001111113R. Novak1.739570WSep 13 · 24:00M. Khomenko1.281111113Y. Parahailo3.505760WSep 12 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.91111186113V. Kovalchuk1.8056111162
V. Kovalchuk10
LSep 14 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.67135641Y. Tebenko2.10111111113LSep 13 · 18:35V. Kovalchuk2.63471131O. Rodin1.4411119113WSep 13 · 16:35R. Novak1.53891191V. Kovalchuk2.3811114113LSep 13 · 15:35V. Kovalchuk1.837860M. Khomenko1.83111193LSep 13 · 14:35Y. Kolos1.83913814123V. Kovalchuk1.8311111112102LSep 13 · 13:05V. Kovalchuk2.50591181Y. Parahailo1.5011117113LSep 13 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.501110451Y. Parahailo1.5071211113LSep 13 · 24:30Y. Tebenko2.20261111113V. Kovalchuk1.6111115872LSep 12 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.5061180O. Rodin1.501113113LSep 12 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.91111186113V. Kovalchuk1.8056111162
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