TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148844
Played Sep 19Finished
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1171161113511119
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:57 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeVladyslav Kovalchuk to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Fashchevskyi above · Vladyslav Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Vladyslav Kovalchuk at 70.7%
95 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Fashchevskyi 1–7 Vladyslav Kovalchuk Ivan Fashchevskyi has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:57What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-7 in 8
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fashchevskyi 1422 vs Kovalchuk 1550
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fashchevskyi 20% vs Kovalchuk 60%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fashchevskyi 20% vs Kovalchuk 40%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fashchevskyi -3 · Kovalchuk +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Kovalchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFashchevskyi 2.75 / Kovalchuk 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13148844
Fashchevskyi2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 80 of 189
Down 0–1, comes back24% 23 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 45
Kovalchuk1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 79 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it88% 30 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it76% 56 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeFashchevskyi1wins
AwayKovalchuk7wins
2 of 8 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 7–1, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFashchevskyin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKovalchuk100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fashchevskyi2Kovalchuk6n = 8Kovalchuk took 6 of 8
S2Fashchevskyi5Kovalchuk3n = 8Fashchevskyi took 5 of 8
S3Fashchevskyi4Kovalchuk4n = 8split evenly
S4Fashchevskyi0Kovalchuk5n = 5Kovalchuk took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away450%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricFashchevskyiKovalchukF − KBasisWins17−6in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match34.438.0−3.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFashchevskyiKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime289 / 585 vs 370 / 76949.4%48.1%289 / 585 vs 370 / 769Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukFashchevskyi 2.75/Kovalchuk 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.7%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Fashchevskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 19 · 09:35I. Fashchevskyi4411511892V. Kovalchuk41311511113
LAug 18 · 15:05I. Fashchevskyi386911121V. Kovalchuk4311117143
LAug 15 · 24:30I. Fashchevskyi218490V. Kovalchuk331111113
LAug 11 · 14:35I. Fashchevskyi325111061V. Kovalchuk4211812113
WAug 7 · 16:25I. Fashchevskyi331111113V. Kovalchuk177460
LJul 16 · 22:45I. Fashchevskyi4561111892V. Kovalchuk49119711113
LApr 8 · 09:35I. Fashchevskyi28411491V. Kovalchuk4111811113
I. Fashchevskyi10
LSep 19 · 24:30I. Fashchevskyi2.50117671O. Budnikov1.5091111113LSep 18 · 23:00I. Fashchevskyi2.0012541152D. Maltsev1.731011118113LSep 18 · 21:30I. Fashchevskyi2.20118111032O. Storozhenko1.61711812113WSep 18 · 20:00I. Fashchevskyi2.0011912113I. Pytsko1.738111091LSep 16 · 10:35I. Fashchevskyi2.2071151242Y. Makovka1.611121110113LSep 16 · 09:05I. Fashchevskyi2.63112811102Y. Tebenko1.44711119123LSep 16 · 07:35I. Fashchevskyi1.91111281292I. Pytsko1.804141110113LSep 16 · 06:05I. Fashchevskyi1.807390D. Maltsev1.911111113LSep 16 · 04:35I. Fashchevskyi2.20761161O. Storozhenko1.6111117113WSep 15 · 19:05I. Fashchevskyi2.2081111123O. Storozhenko1.611168101
V. Kovalchuk10
WSep 19 · 01:00V. Kovalchuk1.33111011113D. Maltsev3.25312991WSep 19 · 24:00V. Kovalchuk1.571111143I. Pytsko2.2599120WSep 18 · 22:30V. Kovalchuk1.80915119113O. Budnikov1.91111311162LSep 18 · 20:30V. Kovalchuk1.8311811972O. Storozhenko1.83911811113LSep 14 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk2.106470Y. Vorsuliak1.671111113WSep 14 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.5059111172V. Kovalchuk2.50111172113LSep 14 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk2.6391111782O. Rodin1.44119911113LSep 14 · 07:05M. Khomenko1.73171111113V. Kovalchuk2.001513371LSep 14 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.67135641Y. Tebenko2.10111111113LSep 13 · 18:35V. Kovalchuk2.63471131O. Rodin1.4411119113
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