TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148355
Played Sep 18Finished
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210511411118511
Denys Maltsev
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:59 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeDenys Maltsev to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Fashchevskyi above · Denys Maltsev below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 88 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Denys Maltsev at 56.9%
88 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Fashchevskyi 29–27 Denys Maltsev Denys Maltsev has won 27 of their 56 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:59What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Maltsev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-27 in 56
Fashchevskyi
Wrong
gap of 2 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fashchevskyi 1438 vs Maltsev 1551
Maltsev
Correct
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fashchevskyi 20% vs Maltsev 60%
Maltsev
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fashchevskyi 30% vs Maltsev 60%
Maltsev
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fashchevskyi -1 · Maltsev -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Maltsev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fashchevskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFashchevskyi 2.00 / Maltsev 1.73
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Maltsev)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13148355
Fashchevskyi2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 80 of 189
Down 0–1, comes back24% 23 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 45
Maltsev1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 110 of 195
Up 2–0, closes it87% 68 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it75% 85 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFashchevskyi6wins
AwayMaltsev4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderFashchevskyi leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFashchevskyi83.3%5 of 6
AwayMaltsev75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fashchevskyi6Maltsev4n = 10Fashchevskyi took 6 of 10
S2Fashchevskyi7Maltsev3n = 10Fashchevskyi took 7 of 10
S3Fashchevskyi3Maltsev7n = 10Maltsev took 7 of 10
S4Fashchevskyi4Maltsev4n = 8split evenly
S5Fashchevskyi2Maltsev1n = 3Fashchevskyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFashchevskyiMaltsevF − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.936.6+1.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFashchevskyiMaltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime289 / 583 vs 457 / 88849.6%51.5%289 / 583 vs 457 / 888Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaltsevFashchevskyi 2.00/Maltsev 1.73
Hit
What we said
56.9%
Maltsev · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Maltsev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 06:05I. Fashchevskyi197390D. Maltsev331111113
WSep 15 · 17:05I. Fashchevskyi3631111113D. Maltsev24113641
WSep 15 · 03:00I. Fashchevskyi4211118123D. Maltsev368711101
WSep 11 · 17:25I. Fashchevskyi50111198113D. Maltsev4788111192
LSep 9 · 04:35I. Fashchevskyi40111151212D. Maltsev49671114113
WSep 7 · 23:15I. Fashchevskyi4111811113D. Maltsev31411971
LAug 31 · 10:05I. Fashchevskyi321111281D. Maltsev4113611113
LAug 30 · 01:30I. Fashchevskyi33811591D. Maltsev4111811113
WAug 28 · 20:15I. Fashchevskyi531181211113D. Maltsev4681114582
WAug 26 · 04:35I. Fashchevskyi331111113D. Maltsev188550
I. Fashchevskyi10
LSep 18 · 21:30I. Fashchevskyi2.20118111032O. Storozhenko1.61711812113WSep 18 · 20:00I. Fashchevskyi2.0011912113I. Pytsko1.738111091LSep 16 · 10:35I. Fashchevskyi2.2071151242Y. Makovka1.611121110113LSep 16 · 09:05I. Fashchevskyi2.63112811102Y. Tebenko1.44711119123LSep 16 · 07:35I. Fashchevskyi1.91111281292I. Pytsko1.804141110113LSep 16 · 06:05I. Fashchevskyi1.807390D. Maltsev1.911111113LSep 16 · 04:35I. Fashchevskyi2.20761161O. Storozhenko1.6111117113WSep 15 · 19:05I. Fashchevskyi2.2081111123O. Storozhenko1.611168101WSep 15 · 17:05D. Maltsev1.83113641I. Fashchevskyi1.8331111113LSep 15 · 15:05Y. Makovka1.60571111113I. Fashchevskyi2.2011117472
D. Maltsev10
LSep 18 · 22:00D. Maltsev2.38711531I. Pytsko1.5311811113WSep 18 · 21:00O. Budnikov1.6758111172D. Maltsev2.10111138113WSep 16 · 11:35I. Pytsko1.50127111172D. Maltsev2.50141167113LSep 16 · 10:05D. Maltsev2.204680O. Storozhenko1.611111113WSep 16 · 08:05Y. Tebenko1.809121161D. Maltsev1.9111149113WSep 16 · 06:05I. Fashchevskyi1.807390D. Maltsev1.911111113WSep 16 · 05:05Y. Makovka2.751181091D. Maltsev1.4041112113WSep 15 · 18:05Y. Makovka2.004660D. Maltsev1.731111113LSep 15 · 17:05D. Maltsev1.83113641I. Fashchevskyi1.8331111113LSep 15 · 16:05D. Maltsev2.3891160I. Pytsko1.531113113
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