TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122219
Played Sep 13Finished
Ruslan Novak
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111121412119––
Yurii Kolos
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:13 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeYurii Kolos to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRuslan Novak above · Yurii Kolos below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 78 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Yurii Kolos at 59.3%
78 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Novak 5–6 Yurii Kolos Ruslan Novak has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:13What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kolos
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novak 1474 vs Kolos 1506
Kolos
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 20% vs Kolos 40%
Kolos
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 20% vs Kolos 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak -1 · Kolos +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kolos)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolos form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 2.25 / Kolos 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kolos)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13122219
Novak2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 22 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Kolos1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite54% won 14 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it69% 9 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovak4wins
AwayKolos6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKolos leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKolos75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novak2Kolos8n = 10Kolos took 8 of 10
S2Novak5Kolos5n = 10split evenly
S3Novak3Kolos7n = 10Kolos took 7 of 10
S4Novak3Kolos2n = 5Novak took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovakKolosN − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match31.934.0−2.1per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakKolosBasisWin rate · lifetime262 / 502 vs 51 / 11152.2%46%262 / 502 vs 51 / 111Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.735.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolosNovak 2.25/Kolos 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Kolos · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Novak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 2 · 15:35R. Novak45481111113Y. Kolos4111118562
LJul 27 · 08:05R. Novak32511881Y. Kolos4211911113
WJul 26 · 16:35R. Novak48151111113Y. Kolos42179881
LJul 19 · 13:05R. Novak2467110Y. Kolos351111133
LJun 21 · 17:35R. Novak207760Y. Kolos331111113
LJun 8 · 10:09R. Novak195950Y. Kolos331111113
WJun 8 · 07:35R. Novak341112113Y. Kolos2251070
LMar 9 · 11:05R. Novak358111061Y. Kolos3911512113
LMar 8 · 18:35R. Novak2610790Y. Kolos341211113
WFeb 16 · 11:05R. Novak3611113113Y. Kolos19521111
R. Novak10
LSep 13 · 16:35R. Novak1.53891191V. Kovalchuk2.3811114113WSep 13 · 15:05R. Novak1.831461110113Y. Parahailo1.83121191292LSep 13 · 13:35R. Novak1.8091111882M. Khomenko1.91116711113LSep 13 · 12:05R. Novak2.636680O. Rodin1.441111113LSep 13 · 03:00R. Novak2.631178101O. Rodin1.4491111123LSep 13 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.001111113R. Novak1.739570LSep 12 · 23:00Y. Tebenko2.10151111113R. Novak1.671313771LSep 12 · 22:00R. Novak1.8061110101Y. Parahailo1.9111512123LSep 12 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.5091111113R. Novak1.50117991WSep 12 · 03:15R. Novak1.53111511113O. Storozhenko2.38917771
Y. Kolos10
WSep 13 · 17:05Y. Kolos1.361111113Y. Parahailo3.006870LSep 13 · 16:05Y. Kolos2.108860O. Rodin1.67111162WSep 13 · 14:35Y. Kolos1.83913814123V. Kovalchuk1.8311111112102LSep 13 · 12:35Y. Kolos4.0093110M. Khomenko1.221111133LSep 7 · 09:44M. Khomenko1.281111113Y. Kolos3.505630LSep 7 · 09:05D. Shchegelskyi1.8312311153Y. Kolos1.8310118131WSep 7 · 07:35Y. Kolos1.911111127113O. Rodin1.8087141172LSep 7 · 06:05Y. Kolos3.258540M. Khomenko1.331111113LSep 7 · 04:35Y. Kolos2.1091113842Y. Vorsuliak1.671191111113LAug 30 · 19:05Y. Kolos1.22871171Y. Parahailo4.0011118113
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