TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155594
Played Sep 20Finished
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117811511118117
Dmytro Shchegelskyi
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:07 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeDmytro Shchegelskyi to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Dmytro Shchegelskyi below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 90 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Dmytro Shchegelskyi at 56.2%
90 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 53–81 Dmytro Shchegelskyi Vladyslav Kovalchuk has won 53 of their 134 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:07What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-81 in 134
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
gap of 28 in 134, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1592 vs Shchegelskyi 1558
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 80% vs Shchegelskyi 40%
Kovalchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 70% vs Shchegelskyi 30%
Kovalchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +4 · Shchegelskyi -1
Kovalchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Shchegelskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shchegelskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 2.10 / Shchegelskyi 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Shchegelskyi)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13155594
Kovalchuk2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 98 of 226
Down 0–1, comes back22% 24 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 54
Shchegelskyi1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 88 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it73% 56 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk2wins
AwayShchegelskyi8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderShchegelskyi leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk40%2 of 5
AwayShchegelskyi100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk5Shchegelskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Kovalchuk5Shchegelskyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalchuk4Shchegelskyi6n = 10Shchegelskyi took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk1Shchegelskyi5n = 6Shchegelskyi took 5 of 6
S5Kovalchuk0Shchegelskyi3n = 3Shchegelskyi took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukShchegelskyiK − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.438.0−3.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukShchegelskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime374 / 774 vs 474 / 91648.3%51.8%374 / 774 vs 474 / 916Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShchegelskyiKovalchuk 2.10/Shchegelskyi 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Shchegelskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 1 · 23:00V. Kovalchuk46611116122D. Shchegelskyi51117811143
LJul 13 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk29910100D. Shchegelskyi351112123
WJul 12 · 13:05V. Kovalchuk331111113D. Shchegelskyi185760
LJul 12 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk35117891D. Shchegelskyi3961111113
LJul 6 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk4411117962D. Shchegelskyi45391111113
WJul 5 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk351311113D. Shchegelskyi2611690
LJun 15 · 07:35V. Kovalchuk32611781D. Shchegelskyi4111811113
LJun 14 · 24:30V. Kovalchuk154650D. Shchegelskyi331111113
LMar 29 · 16:05V. Kovalchuk34119591D. Shchegelskyi4181111113
LMar 29 · 01:00V. Kovalchuk4175111172D. Shchegelskyi51111199113
V. Kovalchuk10
WSep 20 · 24:30Y. Tebenko2.006712101V. Kovalchuk1.73111110123WSep 19 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.63129119113Y. Parahailo1.44101141172WSep 19 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.7371180V. Kovalchuk2.001113113WSep 19 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.381113123R. Novak1.53711100LSep 19 · 02:00I. Fashchevskyi2.751111115113V. Kovalchuk1.4076131192WSep 19 · 01:00V. Kovalchuk1.33111011113D. Maltsev3.25312991WSep 19 · 24:00V. Kovalchuk1.571111143I. Pytsko2.2599120WSep 18 · 22:30V. Kovalchuk1.80915119113O. Budnikov1.91111311162LSep 18 · 20:30V. Kovalchuk1.8311811972O. Storozhenko1.83911811113LSep 14 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk2.106470Y. Vorsuliak1.671111113
D. Shchegelskyi10
LSep 20 · 01:30Y. Parahailo1.6711616133D. Shchegelskyi2.1061114111WSep 20 · 24:00M. Khomenko2.10113891D. Shchegelskyi1.6751111113WSep 19 · 22:00R. Novak2.101211971D. Shchegelskyi1.6714111113LSep 19 · 20:00Y. Tebenko2.10118611113D. Shchegelskyi1.6781111942LSep 18 · 11:05D. Shchegelskyi2.2558110Y. Vorsuliak1.571111133LSep 18 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.441111113D. Shchegelskyi2.639850LSep 18 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi3.251241041V. Slozka1.33101112113LSep 18 · 07:05M. Loboda1.571011316113D. Shchegelskyi2.25127111492WSep 18 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi1.6771111113M. Khomenko2.10115281LSep 17 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi3.0012106101V. Slozka1.36101211123
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