TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155175
Played Sep 19Finished
Ruslan Novak
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1214111911711––
Dmytro Shchegelskyi
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:20 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Shchegelskyi to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Novak above · Dmytro Shchegelskyi below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 76 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Dmytro Shchegelskyi at 57.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Novak 30–49 Dmytro Shchegelskyi Ruslan Novak has won 30 of their 79 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 18:20What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Shchegelskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-49 in 79
Shchegelskyi
Correct
gap of 19 in 79, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novak 1490 vs Shchegelskyi 1531
Shchegelskyi
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 40% vs Shchegelskyi 0%
Novak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 20% vs Shchegelskyi 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak -1 · Shchegelskyi -5
Shchegelskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Shchegelskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shchegelskyi form (0%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 2.10 / Shchegelskyi 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Shchegelskyi)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13155175
Novak2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog32% won 23 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back23% 10 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Shchegelskyi1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 88 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it73% 56 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovak3wins
AwayShchegelskyi7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderShchegelskyi leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovak25%1 of 4
AwayShchegelskyi66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novak4Shchegelskyi6n = 10Shchegelskyi took 6 of 10
S2Novak7Shchegelskyi3n = 10Novak took 7 of 10
S3Novak2Shchegelskyi8n = 10Shchegelskyi took 8 of 10
S4Novak2Shchegelskyi7n = 9Shchegelskyi took 7 of 9
S5Novak2Shchegelskyi2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovakShchegelskyiN − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.842.6−0.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakShchegelskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime260 / 499 vs 472 / 91352.1%51.7%260 / 499 vs 472 / 913Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShchegelskyiNovak 2.10/Shchegelskyi 1.67
Hit
What we said
59%
Shchegelskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Shchegelskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 3 · 06:35R. Novak521111136113D. Shchegelskyi5069151192
LAug 2 · 13:05R. Novak401112981D. Shchegelskyi4371411113
LAug 1 · 21:00R. Novak407111391D. Shchegelskyi4311615113
LJul 27 · 05:35R. Novak29611481D. Shchegelskyi3811511113
LJul 26 · 13:05R. Novak53111511882D. Shchegelskyi546131311113
LJul 25 · 21:00R. Novak48116811122D. Shchegelskyi49411119143
WJul 20 · 07:05R. Novak44111111113D. Shchegelskyi30137281
LJul 19 · 14:35R. Novak429111481D. Shchegelskyi4411616113
WJul 13 · 06:35R. Novak511011118113D. Shchegelskyi4212461192
LJul 11 · 22:00R. Novak197570D. Shchegelskyi331111113
R. Novak10
LSep 19 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.381113123R. Novak1.53711100WSep 13 · 18:05R. Novak2.2581114113Y. Kolos1.571121291LSep 13 · 16:35R. Novak1.53891191V. Kovalchuk2.3811114113WSep 13 · 15:05R. Novak1.831461110113Y. Parahailo1.83121191292LSep 13 · 13:35R. Novak1.8091111882M. Khomenko1.91116711113LSep 13 · 12:05R. Novak2.636680O. Rodin1.441111113LSep 13 · 03:00R. Novak2.631178101O. Rodin1.4491111123LSep 13 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.001111113R. Novak1.739570LSep 12 · 23:00Y. Tebenko2.10151111113R. Novak1.671313771LSep 12 · 22:00R. Novak1.8061110101Y. Parahailo1.9111512123
D. Shchegelskyi10
LSep 19 · 20:00Y. Tebenko2.10118611113D. Shchegelskyi1.6781111942LSep 18 · 11:05D. Shchegelskyi2.2558110Y. Vorsuliak1.571111133LSep 18 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.441111113D. Shchegelskyi2.639850LSep 18 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi3.251241041V. Slozka1.33101112113LSep 18 · 07:05M. Loboda1.571011316113D. Shchegelskyi2.25127111492WSep 18 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi1.6771111113M. Khomenko2.10115281LSep 17 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi3.0012106101V. Slozka1.36101211123WSep 17 · 16:35M. Khomenko2.6351191192D. Shchegelskyi1.44114113113WSep 17 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.20121211113Y. Vorsuliak1.611410371LSep 17 · 14:35M. Loboda1.61111111113D. Shchegelskyi2.20341381
Upcoming Matches
R. Novak
D. Shchegelskyi
Sep 20 · 24:00D. Shchegelskyi1.67M. Khomenko2.10—Sep 20 · 01:30D. Shchegelskyi2.10Y. Parahailo1.67—Sep 20 · 02:30D. Shchegelskyi1.67V. Kovalchuk2.10—Sep 20 · 12:35D. Shchegelskyi1.67V. Kovalchuk2.10—Sep 20 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.10Y. Parahailo1.67—Sep 20 · 17:35D. Shchegelskyi2.00O. Storozhenko1.73—Sep 20 · 19:05D. Shchegelskyi1.67Y. Tebenko2.10—
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.