TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148891
Played Sep 18Finished
Dmytro Shchegelskyi
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711115112118––
Maksym Khomenko
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Shchegelskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Shchegelskyi above · Maksym Khomenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 66 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Dmytro Shchegelskyi at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Shchegelskyi 53–20 Maksym Khomenko Maksym Khomenko has won 20 of their 73 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 13h before this match
Shchegelskyi beat Khomenko 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:17What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Shchegelskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-20 in 73
Shchegelskyi
Correct
gap of 33 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shchegelskyi 1539 vs Khomenko 1699
Khomenko
Wrong
both rated, 159 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shchegelskyi 40% vs Khomenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shchegelskyi 30% vs Khomenko 50%
Khomenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shchegelskyi -1 · Khomenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Shchegelskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shchegelskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShchegelskyi 1.67 / Khomenko 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Shchegelskyi)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13148891
Shchegelskyi1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 86 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it72% 55 of 76
Khomenko2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 68 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back30% 29 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back14% 9 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShchegelskyi7wins
AwayKhomenko3wins
7 of 10 to a deciderShchegelskyi leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShchegelskyi66.7%4 of 6
AwayKhomenko25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shchegelskyi6Khomenko4n = 10Shchegelskyi took 6 of 10
S2Shchegelskyi5Khomenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Shchegelskyi6Khomenko4n = 10Shchegelskyi took 6 of 10
S4Shchegelskyi6Khomenko4n = 10Shchegelskyi took 6 of 10
S5Shchegelskyi4Khomenko2n = 6Shchegelskyi took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricShchegelskyiKhomenkoS − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match46.443.2+3.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShchegelskyiKhomenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime472 / 910 vs 469 / 84651.9%55.4%472 / 910 vs 469 / 846Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShchegelskyiShchegelskyi 1.67/Khomenko 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Shchegelskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Shchegelskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 17 · 16:35D. Shchegelskyi40114113113M. Khomenko4551191192
WSep 7 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi541381111113M. Khomenko4815115982
LSep 6 · 14:35D. Shchegelskyi3711611542M. Khomenko49911711113
WAug 2 · 17:05D. Shchegelskyi54131810133M. Khomenko50111612111
WAug 2 · 01:00D. Shchegelskyi4291111113M. Khomenko31116681
WJul 25 · 22:30D. Shchegelskyi47711711113M. Khomenko4011211792
WJul 19 · 01:00D. Shchegelskyi44111111113M. Khomenko33791341
LJul 12 · 17:05D. Shchegelskyi5091211992M. Khomenko521110911113
WJul 12 · 24:00D. Shchegelskyi50119811113M. Khomenko4181111742
D. Shchegelskyi10
LSep 17 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi3.0012106101V. Slozka1.36101211123WSep 17 · 16:35M. Khomenko2.6351191192D. Shchegelskyi1.44114113113WSep 17 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.20121211113Y. Vorsuliak1.611410371LSep 17 · 14:35M. Loboda1.61111111113D. Shchegelskyi2.20341381LSep 17 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi1.83261191O. Rodin1.8311117113LSep 17 · 02:30D. Shchegelskyi2.251111118102V. Krokhmal1.57791311123LSep 17 · 24:30O. Rodin2.00111011113D. Shchegelskyi1.73512871LSep 16 · 23:30D. Shchegelskyi2.6361070V. Slozka1.441112113WSep 16 · 22:30M. Loboda1.61711691D. Shchegelskyi2.2011211113LSep 16 · 21:00D. Shchegelskyi2.2071311372Y. Vorsuliak1.611111711113
M. Khomenko10
WSep 18 · 06:35M. Khomenko2.501081111113Y. Vorsuliak1.5012115682WSep 17 · 18:05M. Khomenko1.73101113113M. Loboda2.001251121LSep 17 · 16:35M. Khomenko2.6351191192D. Shchegelskyi1.44114113113LSep 17 · 15:05M. Khomenko1.8389111142O. Rodin1.83111154113LSep 17 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.3876110Y. Vorsuliak1.531111133WSep 17 · 12:05M. Khomenko1.531111113V. Slozka2.389770LSep 14 · 10:35Y. Parahailo4.003141011133M. Khomenko1.221112128112WSep 14 · 09:35M. Khomenko1.40117118113Y. Tebenko2.7531181172LSep 14 · 08:35M. Khomenko2.50511811112Y. Vorsuliak1.50118119133WSep 14 · 07:05M. Khomenko1.73171111113V. Kovalchuk2.001513371
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