TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136612
Played Sep 17Finished
Dmytro Shchegelskyi
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11711911138111012
Vitalii Krokhmal
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:54 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeVitalii Krokhmal to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Shchegelskyi above · Vitalii Krokhmal below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 103 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Vitalii Krokhmal at 58.9%
103 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Shchegelskyi 5–13 Vitalii Krokhmal Dmytro Shchegelskyi has won 5 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:54What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Krokhmal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-13 in 18
Krokhmal
Correct
gap of 8 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shchegelskyi 1539 vs Krokhmal 1630
Krokhmal
Correct
both rated, 90 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shchegelskyi 20% vs Krokhmal 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shchegelskyi 30% vs Krokhmal 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shchegelskyi -2 · Krokhmal -3
Krokhmal
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Krokhmal) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krokhmal form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShchegelskyi 2.25 / Krokhmal 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Krokhmal)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13136612
Shchegelskyi2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 58 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back21% 22 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 62
Krokhmal1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 51 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it78% 29 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShchegelskyi3wins
AwayKrokhmal7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKrokhmal leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShchegelskyi60%3 of 5
AwayKrokhmal100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shchegelskyi5Krokhmal5n = 10split evenly
S2Shchegelskyi5Krokhmal5n = 10split evenly
S3Shchegelskyi3Krokhmal7n = 10Krokhmal took 7 of 10
S4Shchegelskyi2Krokhmal3n = 5Krokhmal took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricShchegelskyiKrokhmalS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.036.9−0.9per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShchegelskyiKrokhmalBasisWin rate · lifetime474 / 909 vs 171 / 37252.2%46%474 / 909 vs 171 / 372Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrokhmalShchegelskyi 2.25/Krokhmal 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Krokhmal · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Krokhmal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 23:45D. Shchegelskyi391114143V. Krokhmal32812120
WSep 11 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi43111110113V. Krokhmal31461291
LSep 10 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi258890V. Krokhmal331111113
LSep 10 · 02:30D. Shchegelskyi3289150V. Krokhmal391111173
LAug 21 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi48111111872V. Krokhmal51137911113
LAug 20 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi401111991V. Krokhmal4113611113
LAug 16 · 23:45D. Shchegelskyi219660V. Krokhmal331111113
LJun 28 · 21:15D. Shchegelskyi34118691V. Krokhmal4181111113
LJun 26 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi4514971142V. Krokhmal481211113113
WJun 25 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi331111113V. Krokhmal203890
D. Shchegelskyi10
LSep 17 · 24:30O. Rodin2.00111011113D. Shchegelskyi1.73512871LSep 16 · 23:30D. Shchegelskyi2.6361070V. Slozka1.441112113WSep 16 · 22:30M. Loboda1.61711691D. Shchegelskyi2.2011211113LSep 16 · 21:00D. Shchegelskyi2.2071311372Y. Vorsuliak1.611111711113LSep 15 · 02:45D. Shchegelskyi2.2066111362M. Loboda1.611111911113LSep 15 · 24:45I. Hrekh1.5312114113D. Shchegelskyi2.381081171WSep 14 · 23:45D. Shchegelskyi2.501114143V. Krokhmal1.50812120LSep 14 · 22:45R. Konkulovskyi1.441111143D. Shchegelskyi2.6398120WSep 14 · 21:15D. Shchegelskyi2.381181111113O. Pohonov1.5381171392LSep 11 · 11:05D. Shchegelskyi2.107660Y. Vorsuliak1.671111113
V. Krokhmal10
LSep 17 · 01:30V. Slozka1.831111113V. Krokhmal1.833690WSep 17 · 24:00M. Loboda1.83111166102V. Krokhmal1.83991111123WSep 16 · 22:00Y. Vorsuliak1.91811891V. Krokhmal1.8011911113LSep 16 · 20:00O. Rodin2.00131111113V. Krokhmal1.73156771WSep 16 · 02:30B. Chaikovskyi1.4011411782V. Krokhmal2.75711811113WSep 16 · 01:30A. Romanenko1.808611101V. Krokhmal1.9111118123LSep 16 · 24:00R. Konkulovskyi2.00811115113V. Krokhmal1.7311461152LSep 15 · 22:00I. Sukovatyi1.57211115113V. Krokhmal2.2511641192LSep 15 · 20:00G. Kuzmenko1.6111812123V. Krokhmal2.2091110101LSep 14 · 23:45D. Shchegelskyi2.501114143V. Krokhmal1.50812120
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