TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13128586
Played Sep 14Finished
Dmytro Shchegelskyi
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1188111171113119
Oleksandr Pohonov
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:51 and never touched — 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Pohonov to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Shchegelskyi above · Oleksandr Pohonov below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 100 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Oleksandr Pohonov at 64.8%
100 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Shchegelskyi 5–9 Oleksandr Pohonov Dmytro Shchegelskyi has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:51What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Pohonov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Pohonov
Wrong
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shchegelskyi 1543 vs Pohonov 1734
Pohonov
Wrong
both rated, 190 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shchegelskyi 60% vs Pohonov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shchegelskyi 30% vs Pohonov 50%
Pohonov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shchegelskyi -1 · Pohonov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Pohonov) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shchegelskyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShchegelskyi 2.38 / Pohonov 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Pohonov)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13128586
Shchegelskyi2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 57 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back21% 22 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 60
Pohonov1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 187 of 333
Up 2–0, closes it92% 95 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it76% 136 of 178
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShchegelskyi5wins
AwayPohonov5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShchegelskyi50%2 of 4
AwayPohonov50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shchegelskyi4Pohonov6n = 10Pohonov took 6 of 10
S2Shchegelskyi4Pohonov6n = 10Pohonov took 6 of 10
S3Shchegelskyi5Pohonov5n = 10split evenly
S4Shchegelskyi4Pohonov5n = 9Pohonov took 5 of 9
S5Shchegelskyi4Pohonov2n = 6Shchegelskyi took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricShchegelskyiPohonovS − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.543.3+0.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShchegelskyiPohonovBasisWin rate · lifetime481 / 911 vs 268 / 51952.8%51.6%481 / 911 vs 268 / 519Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PohonovShchegelskyi 2.38/Pohonov 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64%
Pohonov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Shchegelskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 21:15D. Shchegelskyi521181111113O. Pohonov4881171392
LAug 23 · 23:15D. Shchegelskyi3061860O. Pohonov421120113
WAug 21 · 11:35D. Shchegelskyi48116119113O. Pohonov4071151162
LAug 20 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi31671171O. Pohonov4011117113
WAug 16 · 21:15D. Shchegelskyi4391112113O. Pohonov391191091
LAug 14 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi351171161O. Pohonov4161113113
WAug 13 · 03:00D. Shchegelskyi49911711113O. Pohonov4311711772
LAug 11 · 02:45D. Shchegelskyi51119119112O. Pohonov52911811133
LAug 9 · 21:15D. Shchegelskyi4481151192O. Pohonov43118112113
WAug 6 · 01:30D. Shchegelskyi528111111113O. Pohonov4511813942
D. Shchegelskyi10
LSep 11 · 11:05D. Shchegelskyi2.107660Y. Vorsuliak1.671111113WSep 11 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.44711631D. Shchegelskyi2.6311911113WSep 11 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi2.75111110113V. Krokhmal1.40461291WSep 11 · 07:05M. Loboda1.5781261142D. Shchegelskyi2.251110116113LSep 11 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi2.5041280V. Slozka1.501114113LSep 10 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi3.258890V. Krokhmal1.331111113LSep 10 · 16:35I. Hrekh1.4411211113D. Shchegelskyi2.63611691LSep 10 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.2010111081Y. Vorsuliak1.6112912113LSep 10 · 14:35M. Loboda1.611111113D. Shchegelskyi2.207750LSep 10 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi2.5015961192V. Slozka1.501311119113
O. Pohonov10
LSep 13 · 01:43O. Pohonov2.3811421182B. Chaikovskyi1.53611114113WSep 13 · 24:15I. Sukovatyi2.756101361O. Pohonov1.40111211113WSep 12 · 22:45B. Chaikovskyi1.4411391192O. Pohonov2.63911112113LSep 12 · 21:15A. Romanenko2.63891111113O. Pohonov1.4411114872WSep 12 · 20:15R. Konkulovskyi2.201051291O. Pohonov1.61121110113WSep 10 · 11:35A. Romanenko2.258780O. Pohonov1.571111113WSep 10 · 10:05O. Pohonov1.4011115133I. Sukovatyi2.759911111LSep 10 · 08:05B. Chaikovskyi1.5791111113O. Pohonov2.25118531LSep 10 · 06:05S. Maksymiv1.331111113O. Pohonov3.256550LSep 10 · 05:05V. Zharskiy1.731111113O. Pohonov2.009840
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