TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111276
Played Sep 11Finished
Iurii Hrekh
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711119611311––
Dmytro Shchegelskyi
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:48 and never touched — 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeIurii Hrekh to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIurii Hrekh above · Dmytro Shchegelskyi below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 69 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Iurii Hrekh at 68.5%
69 points played in total.
H2H Iurii Hrekh 20–10 Dmytro Shchegelskyi Dmytro Shchegelskyi has won 10 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:48What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Hrekh
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-10 in 30
Hrekh
Wrong
gap of 10 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrekh 1715 vs Shchegelskyi 1520
Hrekh
Wrong
both rated, 195 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrekh 40% vs Shchegelskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrekh 60% vs Shchegelskyi 20%
Hrekh
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrekh +1 · Shchegelskyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Hrekh)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrekh form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrekh 1.44 / Shchegelskyi 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 32%
Edge (Hrekh)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13111276
Hrekh1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 177 of 308
Up 2–0, closes it96% 102 of 106
Up 1–0, closes it79% 139 of 177
Shchegelskyi2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 67 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back24% 27 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrekh8wins
AwayShchegelskyi2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHrekh leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrekh100%8 of 8
AwayShchegelskyin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrekh8Shchegelskyi2n = 10Hrekh took 8 of 10
S2Hrekh7Shchegelskyi3n = 10Hrekh took 7 of 10
S3Hrekh3Shchegelskyi7n = 10Shchegelskyi took 7 of 10
S4Hrekh5Shchegelskyi1n = 6Hrekh took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrekhShchegelskyiH − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.034.2+3.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrekhShchegelskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 525 vs 479 / 90852%52.8%273 / 525 vs 479 / 908Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.539.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HrekhHrekh 1.44/Shchegelskyi 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.5%
Hrekh · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Shchegelskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 16:35I. Hrekh—11211113D. Shchegelskyi—611691
WSep 10 · 24:30I. Hrekh—1211113D. Shchegelskyi—10730
WSep 6 · 16:35I. Hrekh—1111103D. Shchegelskyi—8780
WSep 4 · 09:05I. Hrekh—111213113D. Shchegelskyi—6101581
WSep 3 · 16:35I. Hrekh—1111129133D. Shchegelskyi—381411112
LSep 3 · 24:30I. Hrekh—13770D. Shchegelskyi—1511113
WAug 28 · 07:35I. Hrekh—11115113D. Shchegelskyi—791191
LAug 27 · 16:35I. Hrekh—8880D. Shchegelskyi—1111113
WAug 27 · 24:30I. Hrekh—14118113D. Shchegelskyi—1251181
WAug 23 · 20:45I. Hrekh—12117133D. Shchegelskyi—10711111
I. Hrekh10
WSep 11 · 07:35I. Hrekh1.67111178113V. Slozka2.1087111162LSep 11 · 06:05I. Hrekh1.671168111V. Krokhmal2.1091111133LSep 11 · 04:35I. Hrekh1.447590Y. Vorsuliak2.631111113LSep 10 · 18:05I. Hrekh2.00612851M. Loboda1.73111011113WSep 10 · 16:35I. Hrekh1.4411211113D. Shchegelskyi2.63611691LSep 10 · 15:05I. Hrekh1.6761291162V. Slozka2.101110119113WSep 10 · 13:35I. Hrekh1.4411113113Y. Vorsuliak2.63751171WSep 10 · 12:05I. Hrekh1.61119118123V. Krokhmal2.20911311102WSep 10 · 02:00I. Hrekh2.1051313113M. Loboda1.6711111161WSep 10 · 24:30I. Hrekh1.531211113D. Shchegelskyi2.3810730
D. Shchegelskyi10
WSep 11 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi2.75111110113V. Krokhmal1.40461291WSep 11 · 07:05M. Loboda1.5781261142D. Shchegelskyi2.251110116113LSep 11 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi2.5041280V. Slozka1.501114113LSep 10 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi3.258890V. Krokhmal1.331111113LSep 10 · 16:35I. Hrekh1.4411211113D. Shchegelskyi2.63611691LSep 10 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.2010111081Y. Vorsuliak1.6112912113LSep 10 · 14:35M. Loboda1.611111113D. Shchegelskyi2.207750LSep 10 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi2.5015961192V. Slozka1.501311119113LSep 10 · 02:30D. Shchegelskyi2.2589150V. Krokhmal1.571111173LSep 10 · 24:30I. Hrekh1.531211113D. Shchegelskyi2.3810730
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