TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105835
Played Sep 10Finished
Serhii Maksymiv
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116115115––––
Oleksandr Pohonov
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:45 and never touched — 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeSerhii Maksymiv to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Maksymiv above · Oleksandr Pohonov below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 49 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Serhii Maksymiv at 70.4%
49 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Maksymiv 36–15 Oleksandr Pohonov Oleksandr Pohonov has won 15 of their 51 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:45What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Maksymiv
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-15 in 51
Maksymiv
Correct
gap of 21 in 51, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maksymiv 1706 vs Pohonov 1698
Maksymiv
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maksymiv 40% vs Pohonov 20%
Maksymiv
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maksymiv 50% vs Pohonov 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maksymiv -1 · Pohonov -4
Pohonov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Maksymiv) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pohonov form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaksymiv 1.33 / Pohonov 3.25
Signal prob.73% / 28%
Edge (Maksymiv)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13105835
Maksymiv1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 164 of 287
Up 2–0, closes it92% 91 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it75% 123 of 164
Pohonov3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 50 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back22% 17 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaksymiv10wins
AwayPohonov0wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMaksymiv leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaksymiv100%9 of 9
AwayPohonovn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maksymiv9Pohonov1n = 10Maksymiv took 9 of 10
S2Maksymiv9Pohonov1n = 10Maksymiv took 9 of 10
S3Maksymiv5Pohonov5n = 10split evenly
S4Maksymiv5Pohonov1n = 6Maksymiv took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaksymivPohonovM − PBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match40.328.7+11.6per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaksymivPohonovBasisWin rate · lifetime456 / 758 vs 263 / 51060.2%51.6%456 / 758 vs 263 / 510Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymivMaksymiv 1.33/Pohonov 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.5%
Maksymiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Maksymiv won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 06:05S. Maksymiv—1111113O. Pohonov—6550
WSep 9 · 18:35S. Maksymiv—1111113O. Pohonov—3940
WSep 8 · 23:30S. Maksymiv—111112113O. Pohonov—381491
WSep 3 · 05:05S. Maksymiv—11119113O. Pohonov—861191
WSep 2 · 12:35S. Maksymiv—111111113O. Pohonov—651381
WSep 1 · 20:30S. Maksymiv—119613113O. Pohonov—911111152
WAug 19 · 16:05S. Maksymiv—111178113O. Pohonov—84111172
WJul 29 · 12:05S. Maksymiv—1111113O. Pohonov—9460
WJul 28 · 21:30S. Maksymiv—91111113O. Pohonov—116351
WJul 23 · 08:35S. Maksymiv—1111113O. Pohonov—7970
S. Maksymiv10
LSep 10 · 04:35S. Maksymiv1.736270I. Sukovatyi2.001111113WSep 9 · 18:35O. Pohonov3.003940S. Maksymiv1.361111113WSep 9 · 17:35B. Chaikovskyi2.1011101151S. Maksymiv1.6713128113LSep 9 · 16:05A. Romanenko2.251113113S. Maksymiv1.5781180LSep 9 · 14:05I. Sukovatyi1.911112113S. Maksymiv1.8081060WSep 9 · 12:05V. Zharskiy2.25108100S. Maksymiv1.571211123WSep 9 · 02:30S. Maksymiv1.571111123V. Zharskiy2.2569100LSep 9 · 24:30B. Chaikovskyi2.1061212113S. Maksymiv1.6711101031WSep 8 · 23:30S. Maksymiv1.36111112113O. Pohonov3.00381491LSep 8 · 22:30R. Konkulovskyi2.101111129113S. Maksymiv1.67813101152
O. Pohonov10
LSep 10 · 05:05V. Zharskiy1.731111113O. Pohonov2.009840LSep 9 · 18:35O. Pohonov3.003940S. Maksymiv1.361111113LSep 9 · 16:35V. Zharskiy1.9111811113O. Pohonov1.80911671LSep 9 · 15:35O. Pohonov2.38812111242B. Chaikovskyi1.531110131093WSep 9 · 14:35A. Romanenko2.50811691O. Pohonov1.5011611113WSep 9 · 13:05O. Pohonov1.40611511113I. Sukovatyi2.7511711882WSep 9 · 03:00A. Romanenko2.255960O. Pohonov1.571111113WSep 9 · 01:30O. Pohonov2.0011119113V. Zharskiy1.73551191LSep 8 · 23:30S. Maksymiv1.36111112113O. Pohonov3.00381491WSep 8 · 21:30B. Chaikovskyi1.5399110O. Pohonov2.381111133
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