TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095021
Played Sep 9Finished
Bohdan Chaikovskyi
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
61112101210113––
Serhii Maksymiv
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Maksymiv to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingBohdan Chaikovskyi above · Serhii Maksymiv below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 75 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Serhii Maksymiv at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Bohdan Chaikovskyi 36–47 Serhii Maksymiv Bohdan Chaikovskyi has won 36 of their 83 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:40What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Maksymiv
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-47 in 83
Maksymiv
Wrong
gap of 11 in 83, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chaikovskyi 1785 vs Maksymiv 1706
Chaikovskyi
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chaikovskyi 80% vs Maksymiv 40%
Chaikovskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chaikovskyi 80% vs Maksymiv 40%
Chaikovskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chaikovskyi +1 · Maksymiv +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Maksymiv)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksymiv form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChaikovskyi 2.10 / Maksymiv 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Maksymiv)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13095021
Chaikovskyi2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 159 of 356
Down 0–1, comes back26% 52 of 197
Down 0–2, comes back10% 11 of 111
Maksymiv1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 159 of 277
Up 2–0, closes it92% 86 of 94
Up 1–0, closes it75% 118 of 158
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChaikovskyi5wins
AwayMaksymiv5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChaikovskyin = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMaksymiv44.4%4 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chaikovskyi1Maksymiv9n = 10Maksymiv took 9 of 10
S2Chaikovskyi5Maksymiv5n = 10split evenly
S3Chaikovskyi6Maksymiv4n = 10Chaikovskyi took 6 of 10
S4Chaikovskyi5Maksymiv3n = 8Chaikovskyi took 5 of 8
S5Chaikovskyi2Maksymiv1n = 3Chaikovskyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChaikovskyiMaksymivC − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match36.038.7−2.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChaikovskyiMaksymivBasisWin rate · lifetime381 / 742 vs 451 / 74951.4%60.2%381 / 742 vs 451 / 749Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymivChaikovskyi 2.10/Maksymiv 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Maksymiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chaikovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 10:35B. Chaikovskyi—881111113S. Maksymiv—11113992
WSep 2 · 18:05B. Chaikovskyi—313311113S. Maksymiv—111111782
LSep 2 · 02:00B. Chaikovskyi—119951S. Maksymiv—31111113
LAug 20 · 07:35B. Chaikovskyi—5240S. Maksymiv—1111113
WAug 19 · 12:35B. Chaikovskyi—81113133S. Maksymiv—11811111
LAug 19 · 01:00B. Chaikovskyi—61111562S. Maksymiv—116611113
WAug 13 · 10:35B. Chaikovskyi—61111123S. Maksymiv—1186101
LAug 12 · 15:05B. Chaikovskyi—7670S. Maksymiv—1111113
WAug 11 · 20:00B. Chaikovskyi—81111113S. Maksymiv—117771
LJul 30 · 05:05B. Chaikovskyi—9111191S. Maksymiv—11136113
B. Chaikovskyi10
WSep 8 · 23:00B. Chaikovskyi1.447121111153A. Romanenko2.63111498132LSep 8 · 21:30B. Chaikovskyi1.5399110O. Pohonov2.381111133WSep 8 · 20:00B. Chaikovskyi2.25111195143V. Zharskiy1.57761111122WSep 6 · 02:45B. Chaikovskyi1.831191110123V. Slozka1.83811712102WSep 6 · 24:45V. Zharskiy1.5311117642B. Chaikovskyi2.38461111113WSep 5 · 23:45B. Chaikovskyi1.53551311113O. Pohonov2.38111111492WSep 5 · 22:45R. Konkulovskyi1.61751141B. Chaikovskyi2.2011116113WSep 5 · 21:15B. Chaikovskyi1.4411811133V. Krokhmal2.638118111WSep 3 · 10:35B. Chaikovskyi2.20881111113S. Maksymiv1.6111113992LSep 3 · 09:05B. Chaikovskyi1.5711661182G. Kuzmenko2.25911116113
S. Maksymiv10
WSep 8 · 23:30S. Maksymiv1.36111112113O. Pohonov3.00381491LSep 8 · 22:30R. Konkulovskyi2.101111129113S. Maksymiv1.67813101152LSep 8 · 21:00S. Maksymiv1.53813991A. Romanenko2.38111111113LSep 3 · 10:35B. Chaikovskyi2.20881111113S. Maksymiv1.6111113992WSep 3 · 09:35S. Maksymiv1.7311812113V. Krokhmal2.005111091WSep 3 · 08:35S. Maksymiv1.67111011113I. Sukovatyi2.10412671LSep 3 · 07:05S. Maksymiv1.361187101G. Kuzmenko3.0061111123WSep 3 · 05:05S. Maksymiv1.3611119113O. Pohonov3.00861191LSep 2 · 18:05B. Chaikovskyi2.20313311113S. Maksymiv1.61111111782LSep 2 · 17:05S. Maksymiv1.8391171172V. Krokhmal1.83116117113
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