TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100621
Played Sep 9Finished
Oleksandr Pohonov
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
81112101113121049
Bohdan Chaikovskyi
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:12 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeBohdan Chaikovskyi to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Pohonov above · Bohdan Chaikovskyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 4-9
Point 100 set 5, 4-9 — our read held Bohdan Chaikovskyi at 62.4%
100 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Pohonov 24–33 Bohdan Chaikovskyi Oleksandr Pohonov has won 24 of their 57 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:12What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Chaikovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-33 in 57
Chaikovskyi
Correct
gap of 9 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pohonov 1776 vs Chaikovskyi 1789
Chaikovskyi
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pohonov 80% vs Chaikovskyi 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pohonov 60% vs Chaikovskyi 80%
Chaikovskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pohonov +4 · Chaikovskyi +1
Pohonov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Chaikovskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chaikovskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPohonov 2.38 / Chaikovskyi 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Chaikovskyi)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13100621
Pohonov2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 50 of 134
Down 0–1, comes back23% 17 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 49
Chaikovskyi1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite67% won 91 of 135
Up 2–0, closes it90% 35 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it82% 62 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePohonov3wins
AwayChaikovskyi7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChaikovskyi leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePohonov66.7%2 of 3
AwayChaikovskyi85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pohonov3Chaikovskyi7n = 10Chaikovskyi took 7 of 10
S2Pohonov4Chaikovskyi6n = 10Chaikovskyi took 6 of 10
S3Pohonov3Chaikovskyi7n = 10Chaikovskyi took 7 of 10
S4Pohonov2Chaikovskyi3n = 5Chaikovskyi took 3 of 5
S5Pohonov2Chaikovskyi2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricPohonovChaikovskyiP − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.038.4−2.4per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPohonovChaikovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime263 / 505 vs 384 / 74652.1%51.5%263 / 505 vs 384 / 746Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChaikovskyiPohonov 2.38/Chaikovskyi 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.6%
Chaikovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chaikovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 21:30O. Pohonov—1111133B. Chaikovskyi—99110
LSep 5 · 23:45O. Pohonov—111111492B. Chaikovskyi—551311113
WSep 3 · 06:05O. Pohonov—118115123B. Chaikovskyi—411511102
LSep 2 · 13:35O. Pohonov—6790B. Chaikovskyi—1111113
WSep 1 · 21:30O. Pohonov—9111011113B. Chaikovskyi—11812792
LAug 29 · 21:15O. Pohonov—89111192B. Chaikovskyi—111196113
LAug 27 · 10:05O. Pohonov—7950B. Chaikovskyi—1111113
LAug 19 · 17:35O. Pohonov—1011791B. Chaikovskyi—12411113
LJul 29 · 16:05O. Pohonov—610100B. Chaikovskyi—1112123
LJul 28 · 23:30O. Pohonov—96110B. Chaikovskyi—1111133
O. Pohonov10
WSep 9 · 14:35A. Romanenko2.50811691O. Pohonov1.5011611113WSep 9 · 13:05O. Pohonov1.40611511113I. Sukovatyi2.7511711882WSep 9 · 03:00A. Romanenko2.255960O. Pohonov1.571111113WSep 9 · 01:30O. Pohonov2.0011119113V. Zharskiy1.73551191LSep 8 · 23:30S. Maksymiv1.36111112113O. Pohonov3.00381491WSep 8 · 21:30B. Chaikovskyi1.5399110O. Pohonov2.381111133LSep 8 · 20:30R. Konkulovskyi2.25115411113O. Pohonov1.5781111762WSep 6 · 03:15V. Krokhmal2.00211581O. Pohonov1.7311911113LSep 6 · 01:45O. Pohonov1.731510571V. Slozka2.00131211113LSep 5 · 23:45B. Chaikovskyi1.53551311113O. Pohonov2.38111111492
B. Chaikovskyi10
WSep 9 · 13:35V. Zharskiy1.6111711932B. Chaikovskyi2.20911811113LSep 9 · 12:35A. Romanenko2.501111133B. Chaikovskyi1.5083110WSep 9 · 02:00B. Chaikovskyi2.2511811133R. Konkulovskyi1.577118111WSep 9 · 24:30B. Chaikovskyi2.1061212113S. Maksymiv1.6711101031WSep 8 · 23:00B. Chaikovskyi1.447121111153A. Romanenko2.63111498132LSep 8 · 21:30B. Chaikovskyi1.5399110O. Pohonov2.381111133WSep 8 · 20:00B. Chaikovskyi2.25111195143V. Zharskiy1.57761111122WSep 6 · 02:45B. Chaikovskyi1.831191110123V. Slozka1.83811712102WSep 6 · 24:45V. Zharskiy1.5311117642B. Chaikovskyi2.38461111113WSep 5 · 23:45B. Chaikovskyi1.53551311113O. Pohonov2.38111111492
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