TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095024
Played Sep 9Finished
Oleksandr Pohonov
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115115911119––
Vitaliy Zharskiy
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:40 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeVitaliy Zharskiy to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Pohonov above · Vitaliy Zharskiy below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 72 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Vitaliy Zharskiy at 54.1%
72 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Pohonov 14–18 Vitaliy Zharskiy Oleksandr Pohonov has won 14 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:40What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Zharskiy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-18 in 32
Zharskiy
Wrong
gap of 4 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pohonov 1727 vs Zharskiy 1601
Pohonov
Correct
both rated, 126 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pohonov 40% vs Zharskiy 20%
Pohonov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pohonov 50% vs Zharskiy 20%
Pohonov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pohonov -1 · Zharskiy -3
Zharskiy
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zharskiy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zharskiy form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPohonov 2.00 / Zharskiy 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zharskiy)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13095024
Pohonov2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 48 of 131
Down 0–1, comes back23% 17 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 48
Zharskiy1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 71 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it82% 53 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePohonov4wins
AwayZharskiy6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZharskiy leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePohonov100%3 of 3
AwayZharskiy85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pohonov3Zharskiy7n = 10Zharskiy took 7 of 10
S2Pohonov4Zharskiy6n = 10Zharskiy took 6 of 10
S3Pohonov5Zharskiy5n = 10split evenly
S4Pohonov1Zharskiy5n = 6Zharskiy took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPohonovZharskiyP − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.636.6−4.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPohonovZharskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime259 / 501 vs 277 / 56651.7%48.9%259 / 501 vs 277 / 566Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZharskiyPohonov 2.00/Zharskiy 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Zharskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pohonov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 21:45O. Pohonov—611116113V. Zharskiy—11241192
WJul 16 · 04:35O. Pohonov—11711123V. Zharskiy—3119101
WJul 15 · 12:05O. Pohonov—1161112113V. Zharskiy—61181492
WJul 14 · 21:30O. Pohonov—1111113V. Zharskiy—6880
LJun 18 · 08:35O. Pohonov—611881V. Zharskiy—11911113
LJun 13 · 20:15O. Pohonov—911631V. Zharskiy—11711113
LMay 28 · 08:35O. Pohonov—8570V. Zharskiy—1111113
LMay 26 · 23:30O. Pohonov—6912101V. Zharskiy—111110123
LMay 20 · 12:05O. Pohonov—3640V. Zharskiy—1111113
LMay 19 · 21:00O. Pohonov—95100V. Zharskiy—1111123
O. Pohonov10
WSep 9 · 03:00A. Romanenko2.255960O. Pohonov1.571111113LSep 8 · 23:30S. Maksymiv1.36111112113O. Pohonov3.00381491WSep 8 · 21:30B. Chaikovskyi1.5399110O. Pohonov2.381111133LSep 8 · 20:30R. Konkulovskyi2.25115411113O. Pohonov1.5781111762WSep 6 · 03:15V. Krokhmal2.00211581O. Pohonov1.7311911113LSep 6 · 01:45O. Pohonov1.731510571V. Slozka2.00131211113LSep 5 · 23:45B. Chaikovskyi1.53551311113O. Pohonov2.38111111492WSep 5 · 21:45V. Zharskiy1.6711241192O. Pohonov2.10611116113WSep 5 · 20:45R. Konkulovskyi2.2051790O. Pohonov1.611119113LSep 3 · 11:35V. Krokhmal1.9111115123O. Pohonov1.804511101
V. Zharskiy10
LSep 9 · 02:30S. Maksymiv1.571111123V. Zharskiy2.2569100LSep 9 · 24:00R. Konkulovskyi2.631112113V. Zharskiy1.4471030LSep 8 · 22:00A. Romanenko1.531611123V. Zharskiy2.38143100LSep 8 · 20:00B. Chaikovskyi2.25111195143V. Zharskiy1.57761111122WSep 6 · 02:15V. Zharskiy1.4031111143R. Konkulovskyi2.751144121LSep 6 · 24:45V. Zharskiy1.5311117642B. Chaikovskyi2.38461111113WSep 5 · 23:15V. Zharskiy2.0011511113V. Krokhmal1.73611981LSep 5 · 21:45V. Zharskiy1.6711241192O. Pohonov2.10611116113LSep 5 · 20:15V. Zharskiy1.73414451V. Slozka2.00111211113LJul 16 · 10:35V. Zharskiy2.256860S. Maksymiv1.571111113
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