TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105581
Played Sep 10Finished
Vitaliy Zharskiy
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118114––––
Oleksandr Pohonov
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:16 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeVitaliy Zharskiy to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitaliy Zharskiy above · Oleksandr Pohonov below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 54 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Vitaliy Zharskiy at 54.5%
54 points played in total.
H2H Vitaliy Zharskiy 19–15 Oleksandr Pohonov Oleksandr Pohonov has won 15 of their 34 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 13h before this match
Zharskiy beat Pohonov 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:16What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Zharskiy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-15 in 34
Zharskiy
Correct
gap of 4 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zharskiy 1567 vs Pohonov 1732
Pohonov
Wrong
both rated, 165 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zharskiy 20% vs Pohonov 40%
Pohonov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zharskiy 10% vs Pohonov 50%
Pohonov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zharskiy -1 · Pohonov -3
Pohonov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Zharskiy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zharskiy form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZharskiy 1.73 / Pohonov 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Zharskiy)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13105581
Zharskiy1.73
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite59% won 68 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it79% 50 of 63
Pohonov2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 50 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back22% 17 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZharskiy5wins
AwayPohonov5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZharskiy83.3%5 of 6
AwayPohonov100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zharskiy6Pohonov4n = 10Zharskiy took 6 of 10
S2Zharskiy4Pohonov6n = 10Pohonov took 6 of 10
S3Zharskiy5Pohonov5n = 10split evenly
S4Zharskiy6Pohonov2n = 8Zharskiy took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZharskiyPohonovZ − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.036.4+0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZharskiyPohonovBasisWin rate · lifetime278 / 573 vs 263 / 50848.5%51.8%278 / 573 vs 263 / 508Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZharskiyZharskiy 1.73/Pohonov 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Zharskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Zharskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 16:35V. Zharskiy—11811113O. Pohonov—911671
LSep 9 · 01:30V. Zharskiy—551191O. Pohonov—11119113
LSep 5 · 21:45V. Zharskiy—11241192O. Pohonov—611116113
LJul 16 · 04:35V. Zharskiy—3119101O. Pohonov—11711123
LJul 15 · 12:05V. Zharskiy—61181492O. Pohonov—1161112113
LJul 14 · 21:30V. Zharskiy—6880O. Pohonov—1111113
WJun 18 · 08:35V. Zharskiy—11911113O. Pohonov—611881
WJun 13 · 20:15V. Zharskiy—11711113O. Pohonov—911631
WMay 28 · 08:35V. Zharskiy—1111113O. Pohonov—8570
WMay 26 · 23:30V. Zharskiy—111110123O. Pohonov—6912101
V. Zharskiy10
LSep 9 · 18:05V. Zharskiy2.5010860A. Romanenko1.501211113WSep 9 · 16:35V. Zharskiy1.9111811113O. Pohonov1.80911671LSep 9 · 15:05V. Zharskiy2.385540I. Sukovatyi1.531111113LSep 9 · 13:35V. Zharskiy1.6111711932B. Chaikovskyi2.20911811113LSep 9 · 12:05V. Zharskiy2.25108100S. Maksymiv1.571211123LSep 9 · 02:30S. Maksymiv1.571111123V. Zharskiy2.2569100LSep 9 · 01:30O. Pohonov2.0011119113V. Zharskiy1.73551191LSep 9 · 24:00R. Konkulovskyi2.631112113V. Zharskiy1.4471030LSep 8 · 22:00A. Romanenko1.531611123V. Zharskiy2.38143100LSep 8 · 20:00B. Chaikovskyi2.25111195143V. Zharskiy1.57761111122
O. Pohonov10
LSep 10 · 06:05S. Maksymiv1.331111113O. Pohonov3.256550LSep 9 · 18:35O. Pohonov3.003940S. Maksymiv1.361111113LSep 9 · 16:35V. Zharskiy1.9111811113O. Pohonov1.80911671LSep 9 · 15:35O. Pohonov2.38812111242B. Chaikovskyi1.531110131093WSep 9 · 14:35A. Romanenko2.50811691O. Pohonov1.5011611113WSep 9 · 13:05O. Pohonov1.40611511113I. Sukovatyi2.7511711882WSep 9 · 03:00A. Romanenko2.255960O. Pohonov1.571111113WSep 9 · 01:30O. Pohonov2.0011119113V. Zharskiy1.73551191LSep 8 · 23:30S. Maksymiv1.36111112113O. Pohonov3.00381491WSep 8 · 21:30B. Chaikovskyi1.5399110O. Pohonov2.381111133
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