TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100726
Played Sep 9Finished
Oleksandr Pohonov
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311911411––––
Serhii Maksymiv
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:07 and never touched — 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeSerhii Maksymiv to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Pohonov above · Serhii Maksymiv below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 49 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Serhii Maksymiv at 70.4%
49 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Pohonov 15–34 Serhii Maksymiv Oleksandr Pohonov has won 15 of their 49 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:07What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Maksymiv
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-34 in 49
Maksymiv
Correct
gap of 19 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pohonov 1748 vs Maksymiv 1691
Pohonov
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pohonov 60% vs Maksymiv 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pohonov 60% vs Maksymiv 40%
Pohonov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pohonov -2 · Maksymiv +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Maksymiv)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksymiv form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPohonov 3.00 / Maksymiv 1.36
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Maksymiv)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13100726
Pohonov3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 50 of 134
Down 0–1, comes back23% 17 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 49
Maksymiv1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 161 of 282
Up 2–0, closes it92% 88 of 96
Up 1–0, closes it75% 120 of 161
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePohonov0wins
AwayMaksymiv10wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMaksymiv leads 10–0, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePohonovn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMaksymiv100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pohonov2Maksymiv8n = 10Maksymiv took 8 of 10
S2Pohonov1Maksymiv9n = 10Maksymiv took 9 of 10
S3Pohonov6Maksymiv4n = 10Pohonov took 6 of 10
S4Pohonov1Maksymiv6n = 7Maksymiv took 6 of 7
S5Pohonov0Maksymiv3n = 3Maksymiv took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPohonovMaksymivP − MBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match31.941.4−9.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPohonovMaksymivBasisWin rate · lifetime263 / 507 vs 454 / 75551.9%60.1%263 / 507 vs 454 / 755Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymivPohonov 3.00/Maksymiv 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.4%
Maksymiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Maksymiv won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 23:30O. Pohonov—381491S. Maksymiv—111112113
LSep 3 · 05:05O. Pohonov—861191S. Maksymiv—11119113
LSep 2 · 12:35O. Pohonov—651381S. Maksymiv—111111113
LSep 1 · 20:30O. Pohonov—911111152S. Maksymiv—119613113
LAug 19 · 16:05O. Pohonov—84111172S. Maksymiv—111178113
LJul 29 · 12:05O. Pohonov—9460S. Maksymiv—1111113
LJul 28 · 21:30O. Pohonov—116351S. Maksymiv—91111113
LJul 23 · 08:35O. Pohonov—7970S. Maksymiv—1111113
LJul 22 · 16:05O. Pohonov—9870S. Maksymiv—1111113
LJul 21 · 21:30O. Pohonov—11611752S. Maksymiv—811311113
O. Pohonov10
LSep 9 · 16:35V. Zharskiy1.9111811113O. Pohonov1.80911671LSep 9 · 15:35O. Pohonov2.38812111242B. Chaikovskyi1.531110131093WSep 9 · 14:35A. Romanenko2.50811691O. Pohonov1.5011611113WSep 9 · 13:05O. Pohonov1.40611511113I. Sukovatyi2.7511711882WSep 9 · 03:00A. Romanenko2.255960O. Pohonov1.571111113WSep 9 · 01:30O. Pohonov2.0011119113V. Zharskiy1.73551191LSep 8 · 23:30S. Maksymiv1.36111112113O. Pohonov3.00381491WSep 8 · 21:30B. Chaikovskyi1.5399110O. Pohonov2.381111133LSep 8 · 20:30R. Konkulovskyi2.25115411113O. Pohonov1.5781111762WSep 6 · 03:15V. Krokhmal2.00211581O. Pohonov1.7311911113
S. Maksymiv10
WSep 9 · 17:35B. Chaikovskyi2.1011101151S. Maksymiv1.6713128113LSep 9 · 16:05A. Romanenko2.251113113S. Maksymiv1.5781180LSep 9 · 14:05I. Sukovatyi1.911112113S. Maksymiv1.8081060WSep 9 · 12:05V. Zharskiy2.25108100S. Maksymiv1.571211123WSep 9 · 02:30S. Maksymiv1.571111123V. Zharskiy2.2569100LSep 9 · 24:30B. Chaikovskyi2.1061212113S. Maksymiv1.6711101031WSep 8 · 23:30S. Maksymiv1.36111112113O. Pohonov3.00381491LSep 8 · 22:30R. Konkulovskyi2.101111129113S. Maksymiv1.67813101152LSep 8 · 21:00S. Maksymiv1.53813991A. Romanenko2.38111111113LSep 3 · 10:35B. Chaikovskyi2.20881111113S. Maksymiv1.6111113992
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