TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122834
Played Sep 13Finished
Oleksandr Pohonov
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116411211114811
Bohdan Chaikovskyi
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingOleksandr Pohonov above · Bohdan Chaikovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 79 set 5, 8-11
79 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Pohonov 25–35 Bohdan Chaikovskyi Oleksandr Pohonov has won 25 of their 60 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Pohonov beat Chaikovskyi 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Chaikovskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chaikovskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPohonov 2.38 / Chaikovskyi 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Chaikovskyi)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13122834
Pohonov2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 37 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back21% 15 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 49
Chaikovskyi1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 87 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it89% 33 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it80% 60 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePohonov4wins
AwayChaikovskyi6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderChaikovskyi leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePohonov50%2 of 4
AwayChaikovskyi66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pohonov4Chaikovskyi6n = 10Chaikovskyi took 6 of 10
S2Pohonov5Chaikovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Pohonov4Chaikovskyi6n = 10Chaikovskyi took 6 of 10
S4Pohonov3Chaikovskyi4n = 7Chaikovskyi took 4 of 7
S5Pohonov3Chaikovskyi3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPohonovChaikovskyiP − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.941.4−2.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPohonovChaikovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime268 / 517 vs 392 / 75851.8%51.7%268 / 517 vs 392 / 758Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChaikovskyiPohonov 2.38/Chaikovskyi 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Chaikovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chaikovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 22:45O. Pohonov44911112113B. Chaikovskyi4311391192
LSep 10 · 08:05O. Pohonov27118531B. Chaikovskyi4291111113
LSep 9 · 15:35O. Pohonov47812111242B. Chaikovskyi531110131093
WSep 8 · 21:30O. Pohonov351111133B. Chaikovskyi2999110
LSep 5 · 23:45O. Pohonov46111111492B. Chaikovskyi45551311113
WSep 3 · 06:05O. Pohonov47118115123B. Chaikovskyi41411511102
LSep 2 · 13:35O. Pohonov226790B. Chaikovskyi331111113
WSep 1 · 21:30O. Pohonov529111011113B. Chaikovskyi4711812792
LAug 29 · 21:15O. Pohonov4889111192B. Chaikovskyi48111196113
LAug 27 · 10:05O. Pohonov217950B. Chaikovskyi331111113
O. Pohonov10
WSep 13 · 24:15I. Sukovatyi2.756101361O. Pohonov1.40111211113WSep 12 · 22:45B. Chaikovskyi1.4411391192O. Pohonov2.63911112113LSep 12 · 21:15A. Romanenko2.63891111113O. Pohonov1.4411114872WSep 12 · 20:15R. Konkulovskyi2.201051291O. Pohonov1.61121110113WSep 10 · 11:35A. Romanenko2.258780O. Pohonov1.571111113WSep 10 · 10:05O. Pohonov1.4011115133I. Sukovatyi2.759911111LSep 10 · 08:05B. Chaikovskyi1.5791111113O. Pohonov2.25118531LSep 10 · 06:05S. Maksymiv1.331111113O. Pohonov3.256550LSep 10 · 05:05V. Zharskiy1.731111113O. Pohonov2.009840LSep 9 · 18:35O. Pohonov3.003940S. Maksymiv1.361111113
B. Chaikovskyi10
WSep 12 · 23:45A. Romanenko2.63128110B. Chaikovskyi1.441411133LSep 12 · 22:45B. Chaikovskyi1.4411391192O. Pohonov2.63911112113WSep 12 · 21:45R. Konkulovskyi1.5713980B. Chaikovskyi2.251511113WSep 12 · 20:45B. Chaikovskyi1.83411811113I. Sukovatyi1.8311911662WSep 10 · 11:05B. Chaikovskyi1.9111114113I. Sukovatyi1.80661171LSep 10 · 09:05S. Maksymiv1.73118711113B. Chaikovskyi2.0071111282WSep 10 · 08:05B. Chaikovskyi1.5791111113O. Pohonov2.25118531LSep 10 · 07:05V. Zharskiy1.611111113B. Chaikovskyi2.206460WSep 10 · 05:35B. Chaikovskyi1.5011711113A. Romanenko2.50611691WSep 9 · 19:05I. Sukovatyi1.807650B. Chaikovskyi1.911111113
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