TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105723
Played Sep 10Finished
Vitaliy Zharskiy
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116114116––––
Bohdan Chaikovskyi
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:05 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeVitaliy Zharskiy to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitaliy Zharskiy above · Bohdan Chaikovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 49 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Vitaliy Zharskiy at 58.1%
49 points played in total.
H2H Vitaliy Zharskiy 48–26 Bohdan Chaikovskyi Bohdan Chaikovskyi has won 26 of their 74 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:05What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Zharskiy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
48-26 in 74
Zharskiy
Correct
gap of 22 in 74, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zharskiy 1610 vs Chaikovskyi 1781
Chaikovskyi
Wrong
both rated, 171 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zharskiy 40% vs Chaikovskyi 80%
Chaikovskyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zharskiy 20% vs Chaikovskyi 70%
Chaikovskyi
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zharskiy +1 · Chaikovskyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Zharskiy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chaikovskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZharskiy 1.61 / Chaikovskyi 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Zharskiy)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13105723
Zharskiy1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 68 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it79% 50 of 63
Chaikovskyi2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 162 of 357
Down 0–1, comes back27% 54 of 198
Down 0–2, comes back10% 11 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZharskiy5wins
AwayChaikovskyi5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZharskiy66.7%4 of 6
AwayChaikovskyi75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zharskiy6Chaikovskyi4n = 10Zharskiy took 6 of 10
S2Zharskiy7Chaikovskyi3n = 10Zharskiy took 7 of 10
S3Zharskiy5Chaikovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Zharskiy3Chaikovskyi4n = 7Chaikovskyi took 4 of 7
S5Zharskiy1Chaikovskyi3n = 4Chaikovskyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZharskiyChaikovskyiZ − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.434.6+2.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZharskiyChaikovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime280 / 571 vs 387 / 75149%51.5%280 / 571 vs 387 / 751Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZharskiyZharskiy 1.61/Chaikovskyi 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Zharskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Zharskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 07:05V. Zharskiy—1111113B. Chaikovskyi—6460
LSep 9 · 13:35V. Zharskiy—11711932B. Chaikovskyi—911811113
LSep 8 · 20:00V. Zharskiy—761111122B. Chaikovskyi—111195143
LSep 6 · 24:45V. Zharskiy—11117642B. Chaikovskyi—461111113
LJun 11 · 09:35V. Zharskiy—811991B. Chaikovskyi—11411113
WJun 10 · 13:35V. Zharskiy—911114113B. Chaikovskyi—11461172
WJun 9 · 20:00V. Zharskiy—1112123B. Chaikovskyi—710100
LJun 4 · 05:05V. Zharskiy—55100B. Chaikovskyi—1111123
WJun 3 · 12:05V. Zharskiy—11115113B. Chaikovskyi—581121
WJun 2 · 23:30V. Zharskiy—11115113B. Chaikovskyi—341161
V. Zharskiy10
WSep 10 · 05:05V. Zharskiy1.731111113O. Pohonov2.009840LSep 9 · 18:05V. Zharskiy2.5010860A. Romanenko1.501211113WSep 9 · 16:35V. Zharskiy1.9111811113O. Pohonov1.80911671LSep 9 · 15:05V. Zharskiy2.385540I. Sukovatyi1.531111113LSep 9 · 13:35V. Zharskiy1.6111711932B. Chaikovskyi2.20911811113LSep 9 · 12:05V. Zharskiy2.25108100S. Maksymiv1.571211123LSep 9 · 02:30S. Maksymiv1.571111123V. Zharskiy2.2569100LSep 9 · 01:30O. Pohonov2.0011119113V. Zharskiy1.73551191LSep 9 · 24:00R. Konkulovskyi2.631112113V. Zharskiy1.4471030LSep 8 · 22:00A. Romanenko1.531611123V. Zharskiy2.38143100
B. Chaikovskyi10
WSep 10 · 08:05B. Chaikovskyi1.5791111113O. Pohonov2.25118531WSep 10 · 05:35B. Chaikovskyi1.5011711113A. Romanenko2.50611691WSep 9 · 19:05I. Sukovatyi1.807650B. Chaikovskyi1.911111113LSep 9 · 17:35B. Chaikovskyi2.1011101151S. Maksymiv1.6713128113WSep 9 · 15:35O. Pohonov2.38812111242B. Chaikovskyi1.531110131093WSep 9 · 13:35V. Zharskiy1.6111711932B. Chaikovskyi2.20911811113LSep 9 · 12:35A. Romanenko2.501111133B. Chaikovskyi1.5083110WSep 9 · 02:00B. Chaikovskyi2.2511811133R. Konkulovskyi1.577118111WSep 9 · 24:30B. Chaikovskyi2.1061212113S. Maksymiv1.6711101031WSep 8 · 23:00B. Chaikovskyi1.447121111153A. Romanenko2.63111498132
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