TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105753
Played Sep 10Finished
Bohdan Chaikovskyi
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116711116119––
Andrii Romanenko
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:06 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeBohdan Chaikovskyi to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBohdan Chaikovskyi above · Andrii Romanenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 72 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Bohdan Chaikovskyi at 64.5%
72 points played in total.
H2H Bohdan Chaikovskyi 43–21 Andrii Romanenko Andrii Romanenko has won 21 of their 64 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 17h before this match
Romanenko beat Chaikovskyi 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:06What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Chaikovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
43-21 in 64
Chaikovskyi
Correct
gap of 22 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chaikovskyi 1794 vs Romanenko 1709
Chaikovskyi
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chaikovskyi 60% vs Romanenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chaikovskyi 70% vs Romanenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chaikovskyi +1 · Romanenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Chaikovskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Romanenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChaikovskyi 1.50 / Romanenko 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Chaikovskyi)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13105753
Chaikovskyi1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 92 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it90% 35 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it82% 63 of 77
Romanenko2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 79 of 201
Down 0–1, comes back22% 25 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChaikovskyi6wins
AwayRomanenko4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderChaikovskyi leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChaikovskyi100%5 of 5
AwayRomanenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chaikovskyi5Romanenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Chaikovskyi5Romanenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Chaikovskyi7Romanenko3n = 10Chaikovskyi took 7 of 10
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricChaikovskyiRomanenkoC − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.331.4+2.9per matchSweeps53+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChaikovskyiRomanenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime386 / 749 vs 289 / 53851.5%53.7%386 / 749 vs 289 / 538Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChaikovskyiChaikovskyi 1.50/Romanenko 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Chaikovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chaikovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 12:35B. Chaikovskyi—83110A. Romanenko—1111133
WSep 8 · 23:00B. Chaikovskyi—7121111153A. Romanenko—111498132
LAug 29 · 22:45B. Chaikovskyi—9640A. Romanenko—1111113
LAug 27 · 04:35B. Chaikovskyi—71180A. Romanenko—1113113
WAug 22 · 21:15B. Chaikovskyi—1111113A. Romanenko—9880
WAug 20 · 09:38B. Chaikovskyi—1112113A. Romanenko—61080
WAug 20 · 05:05B. Chaikovskyi—1211113A. Romanenko—10590
WAug 19 · 19:05B. Chaikovskyi—1112113A. Romanenko—31040
WAug 18 · 21:00B. Chaikovskyi—1411113A. Romanenko—12470
LAug 15 · 22:15B. Chaikovskyi—117111192A. Romanenko—131153113
B. Chaikovskyi10
WSep 9 · 19:05I. Sukovatyi1.807650B. Chaikovskyi1.911111113LSep 9 · 17:35B. Chaikovskyi2.1011101151S. Maksymiv1.6713128113WSep 9 · 15:35O. Pohonov2.38812111242B. Chaikovskyi1.531110131093WSep 9 · 13:35V. Zharskiy1.6111711932B. Chaikovskyi2.20911811113LSep 9 · 12:35A. Romanenko2.501111133B. Chaikovskyi1.5083110WSep 9 · 02:00B. Chaikovskyi2.2511811133R. Konkulovskyi1.577118111WSep 9 · 24:30B. Chaikovskyi2.1061212113S. Maksymiv1.6711101031WSep 8 · 23:00B. Chaikovskyi1.447121111153A. Romanenko2.63111498132LSep 8 · 21:30B. Chaikovskyi1.5399110O. Pohonov2.381111133WSep 8 · 20:00B. Chaikovskyi2.25111195143V. Zharskiy1.57761111122
A. Romanenko10
WSep 9 · 18:05V. Zharskiy2.5010860A. Romanenko1.501211113LSep 9 · 17:05A. Romanenko2.20991181I. Sukovatyi1.6111118113WSep 9 · 16:05A. Romanenko2.251113113S. Maksymiv1.5781180LSep 9 · 14:35A. Romanenko2.50811691O. Pohonov1.5011611113WSep 9 · 12:35A. Romanenko2.501111133B. Chaikovskyi1.5083110LSep 9 · 03:00A. Romanenko2.255960O. Pohonov1.571111113WSep 9 · 01:00R. Konkulovskyi2.251011751A. Romanenko1.5712611113LSep 8 · 23:00B. Chaikovskyi1.447121111153A. Romanenko2.63111498132WSep 8 · 22:00A. Romanenko1.531611123V. Zharskiy2.38143100WSep 8 · 21:00S. Maksymiv1.53813991A. Romanenko2.38111111113
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