TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116938
Played Sep 12Finished
Bohdan Chaikovskyi
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411119811116116
Ihor Sukovatyi
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBohdan Chaikovskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBohdan Chaikovskyi above · Ihor Sukovatyi below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 88 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Bohdan Chaikovskyi at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Bohdan Chaikovskyi 32–42 Ihor Sukovatyi Bohdan Chaikovskyi has won 32 of their 74 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 21:13What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sukovatyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-42 in 74
Sukovatyi
Wrong
gap of 10 in 74, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chaikovskyi 1786 vs Sukovatyi 1669
Chaikovskyi
Correct
both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chaikovskyi 60% vs Sukovatyi 40%
Chaikovskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chaikovskyi 60% vs Sukovatyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chaikovskyi +1 · Sukovatyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chaikovskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sukovatyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChaikovskyi 1.83 / Sukovatyi 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chaikovskyi)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13116938
Chaikovskyi1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Sukovatyi1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChaikovskyi7wins
AwaySukovatyi3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderChaikovskyi leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChaikovskyi100%7 of 7
AwaySukovatyi100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chaikovskyi7Sukovatyi3n = 10Chaikovskyi took 7 of 10
S2Chaikovskyi5Sukovatyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Chaikovskyi4Sukovatyi6n = 10Sukovatyi took 6 of 10
S4Chaikovskyi4Sukovatyi1n = 5Chaikovskyi took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricChaikovskyiSukovatyiC − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match33.030.5+2.5per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChaikovskyiSukovatyiBasisWin rate · lifetime389 / 754 vs 269 / 49451.6%54.5%389 / 754 vs 269 / 494Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChaikovskyiChaikovskyi 1.83/Sukovatyi 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chaikovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chaikovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 11:05B. Chaikovskyi3711114113I. Sukovatyi30661171
WSep 9 · 19:05B. Chaikovskyi331111113I. Sukovatyi187650
LSep 3 · 04:35B. Chaikovskyi2111640I. Sukovatyi351311113
WSep 2 · 12:05B. Chaikovskyi4511149113I. Sukovatyi419121191
WSep 2 · 24:30B. Chaikovskyi47111168113I. Sukovatyi4599111152
LAug 30 · 24:15B. Chaikovskyi124440I. Sukovatyi331111113
WAug 27 · 06:35B. Chaikovskyi3911511123I. Sukovatyi284113101
LAug 22 · 22:15B. Chaikovskyi227960I. Sukovatyi331111113
WAug 20 · 08:35B. Chaikovskyi331111113I. Sukovatyi144460
WAug 19 · 15:35B. Chaikovskyi4111811113I. Sukovatyi28511481
B. Chaikovskyi10
WSep 12 · 21:45R. Konkulovskyi1.5713980B. Chaikovskyi2.251511113WSep 10 · 11:05B. Chaikovskyi1.9111114113I. Sukovatyi1.80661171LSep 10 · 09:05S. Maksymiv1.73118711113B. Chaikovskyi2.0071111282WSep 10 · 08:05B. Chaikovskyi1.5791111113O. Pohonov2.25118531LSep 10 · 07:05V. Zharskiy1.611111113B. Chaikovskyi2.206460WSep 10 · 05:35B. Chaikovskyi1.5011711113A. Romanenko2.50611691WSep 9 · 19:05I. Sukovatyi1.807650B. Chaikovskyi1.911111113LSep 9 · 17:35B. Chaikovskyi2.1011101151S. Maksymiv1.6713128113WSep 9 · 15:35O. Pohonov2.38812111242B. Chaikovskyi1.531110131093WSep 9 · 13:35V. Zharskiy1.6111711932B. Chaikovskyi2.20911811113
I. Sukovatyi10
WSep 12 · 22:15A. Romanenko2.10611651I. Sukovatyi1.6711611113LSep 10 · 11:05B. Chaikovskyi1.9111114113I. Sukovatyi1.80661171LSep 10 · 10:05O. Pohonov1.4011115133I. Sukovatyi2.759911111WSep 10 · 08:35V. Zharskiy2.638330I. Sukovatyi1.441111113LSep 10 · 06:35A. Romanenko2.2011911113I. Sukovatyi1.61811491WSep 10 · 04:35S. Maksymiv1.736270I. Sukovatyi2.001111113LSep 9 · 19:05I. Sukovatyi1.807650B. Chaikovskyi1.911111113WSep 9 · 17:05A. Romanenko2.20991181I. Sukovatyi1.6111118113WSep 9 · 15:05V. Zharskiy2.385540I. Sukovatyi1.531111113WSep 9 · 14:05I. Sukovatyi1.911112113S. Maksymiv1.8081060
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