TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142850
Played Sep 17Finished
Maksym Khomenko
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511114911113911
Dmytro Shchegelskyi
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Shchegelskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Khomenko above · Dmytro Shchegelskyi below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 85 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Dmytro Shchegelskyi at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Khomenko 20–52 Dmytro Shchegelskyi Maksym Khomenko has won 20 of their 72 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:23What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Shchegelskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-52 in 72
Shchegelskyi
Correct
gap of 32 in 72, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khomenko 1703 vs Shchegelskyi 1532
Khomenko
Wrong
both rated, 171 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khomenko 40% vs Shchegelskyi 20%
Khomenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khomenko 60% vs Shchegelskyi 20%
Khomenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Khomenko -2 · Shchegelskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Shchegelskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shchegelskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhomenko 2.63 / Shchegelskyi 1.44
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Shchegelskyi)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13142850
Khomenko2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 68 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back30% 29 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back14% 9 of 63
Shchegelskyi1.44
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite58% won 86 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it72% 55 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhomenko3wins
AwayShchegelskyi7wins
7 of 10 to a deciderShchegelskyi leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhomenko20%1 of 5
AwayShchegelskyi60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khomenko5Shchegelskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Khomenko5Shchegelskyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Khomenko4Shchegelskyi6n = 10Shchegelskyi took 6 of 10
S4Khomenko3Shchegelskyi7n = 10Shchegelskyi took 7 of 10
S5Khomenko3Shchegelskyi4n = 7Shchegelskyi took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhomenkoShchegelskyiK − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.947.3−3.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhomenkoShchegelskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime468 / 844 vs 471 / 90855.5%51.9%468 / 844 vs 471 / 908Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.539.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShchegelskyiKhomenko 2.63/Shchegelskyi 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Shchegelskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Shchegelskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 08:05M. Khomenko4815115982D. Shchegelskyi541381111113
WSep 6 · 14:35M. Khomenko49911711113D. Shchegelskyi3711611542
WAug 30 · 14:35M. Khomenko52811914103D. Shchegelskyi45113111282
LAug 2 · 17:05M. Khomenko50111612111D. Shchegelskyi54131810133
LAug 2 · 01:00M. Khomenko31116681D. Shchegelskyi4291111113
LJul 25 · 22:30M. Khomenko4011211792D. Shchegelskyi47711711113
LJul 19 · 01:00M. Khomenko33791341D. Shchegelskyi44111111113
WJul 12 · 17:05M. Khomenko521110911113D. Shchegelskyi5091211992
LJul 12 · 24:00M. Khomenko4181111742D. Shchegelskyi50119811113
LJun 14 · 02:00M. Khomenko4311117682D. Shchegelskyi50981111113
M. Khomenko10
WSep 17 · 18:05M. Khomenko1.73101113113M. Loboda2.001251121LSep 17 · 15:05M. Khomenko1.8389111142O. Rodin1.83111154113LSep 17 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.3876110Y. Vorsuliak1.531111133WSep 17 · 12:05M. Khomenko1.531111113V. Slozka2.389770LSep 14 · 10:35Y. Parahailo4.003141011133M. Khomenko1.221112128112WSep 14 · 09:35M. Khomenko1.40117118113Y. Tebenko2.7531181172LSep 14 · 08:35M. Khomenko2.50511811112Y. Vorsuliak1.50118119133WSep 14 · 07:05M. Khomenko1.73171111113V. Kovalchuk2.001513371WSep 14 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.80141198113O. Rodin1.91128111192WSep 13 · 19:05Y. Parahailo3.7571190M. Khomenko1.251113103
D. Shchegelskyi10
WSep 17 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.20121211113Y. Vorsuliak1.611410371LSep 17 · 14:35M. Loboda1.61111111113D. Shchegelskyi2.20341381LSep 17 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi1.83261191O. Rodin1.8311117113LSep 17 · 02:30D. Shchegelskyi2.251111118102V. Krokhmal1.57791311123LSep 17 · 24:30O. Rodin2.00111011113D. Shchegelskyi1.73512871LSep 16 · 23:30D. Shchegelskyi2.6361070V. Slozka1.441112113WSep 16 · 22:30M. Loboda1.61711691D. Shchegelskyi2.2011211113LSep 16 · 21:00D. Shchegelskyi2.2071311372Y. Vorsuliak1.611111711113LSep 15 · 02:45D. Shchegelskyi2.2066111362M. Loboda1.611111911113LSep 15 · 24:45I. Hrekh1.5312114113D. Shchegelskyi2.381081171
Upcoming Matches
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D. Shchegelskyi
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