TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155759
Played Sep 19Finished
Yaroslav Tebenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118811611119114
Dmytro Shchegelskyi
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Shchegelskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Dmytro Shchegelskyi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 90 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Dmytro Shchegelskyi at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 25–33 Dmytro Shchegelskyi Yaroslav Tebenko has won 25 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:47What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-33 in 58
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
gap of 8 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1635 vs Shchegelskyi 1539
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 60% vs Shchegelskyi 20%
Tebenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 70% vs Shchegelskyi 30%
Tebenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko +2 · Shchegelskyi -4
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Shchegelskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shchegelskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 2.10 / Shchegelskyi 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Shchegelskyi)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13155759
Tebenko2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 16)
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 120 of 254
Down 0–1, comes back31% 42 of 137
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 74
Shchegelskyi1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 18)
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 88 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it73% 56 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko3wins
AwayShchegelskyi7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderShchegelskyi leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko25%1 of 4
AwayShchegelskyi66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko4Shchegelskyi6n = 10Shchegelskyi took 6 of 10
S2Tebenko1Shchegelskyi9n = 10Shchegelskyi took 9 of 10
S3Tebenko1Shchegelskyi9n = 10Shchegelskyi took 9 of 10
S4Tebenko3Shchegelskyi3n = 6split evenly
S5Tebenko3Shchegelskyi0n = 3Tebenko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoShchegelskyiT − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.139.6−3.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoShchegelskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime407 / 841 vs 472 / 91248.4%51.8%407 / 841 vs 472 / 912Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShchegelskyiTebenko 2.10/Shchegelskyi 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Shchegelskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LApr 28 · 09:35Y. Tebenko4111111091D. Shchegelskyi4481312113
LApr 27 · 13:05Y. Tebenko4211121181D. Shchegelskyi4131413113
LApr 26 · 22:30Y. Tebenko2082100D. Shchegelskyi341111123
WMar 25 · 10:05Y. Tebenko47511911113D. Shchegelskyi4011411682
WFeb 14 · 23:00Y. Tebenko50119811113D. Shchegelskyi4251111872
LJan 18 · 02:00Y. Tebenko371111871D. Shchegelskyi4491311113
WJan 16 · 13:55Y. Tebenko53991311113D. Shchegelskyi50111111892
LJan 12 · 10:05Y. Tebenko2610880D. Shchegelskyi341211113
LDec 12 · 10:25Y. Tebenko2671090D. Shchegelskyi341112113
LDec 11 · 17:55Y. Tebenko198650D. Shchegelskyi331111113
Y. Tebenko10
WSep 19 · 21:30Y. Tebenko1.83116711123Y. Parahailo1.83911114102WSep 16 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.8311119113O. Storozhenko1.83891161WSep 16 · 09:05I. Fashchevskyi2.63112811102Y. Tebenko1.44711119123LSep 16 · 08:05Y. Tebenko1.809121161D. Maltsev1.9111149113WSep 16 · 07:05Y. Makovka2.509980Y. Tebenko1.501111113LSep 16 · 05:35Y. Tebenko1.835116101I. Pytsko1.8311311123WSep 15 · 18:35Y. Tebenko1.831111113I. Pytsko1.835790WSep 15 · 16:35Y. Makovka2.106950Y. Tebenko1.671111113LSep 15 · 15:35Y. Tebenko1.831212121492O. Storozhenko1.8310101416113WSep 15 · 14:35D. Maltsev1.837350Y. Tebenko1.831111113
D. Shchegelskyi10
LSep 18 · 11:05D. Shchegelskyi2.2558110Y. Vorsuliak1.571111133LSep 18 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.441111113D. Shchegelskyi2.639850LSep 18 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi3.251241041V. Slozka1.33101112113LSep 18 · 07:05M. Loboda1.571011316113D. Shchegelskyi2.25127111492WSep 18 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi1.6771111113M. Khomenko2.10115281LSep 17 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi3.0012106101V. Slozka1.36101211123WSep 17 · 16:35M. Khomenko2.6351191192D. Shchegelskyi1.44114113113WSep 17 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.20121211113Y. Vorsuliak1.611410371LSep 17 · 14:35M. Loboda1.61111111113D. Shchegelskyi2.20341381LSep 17 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi1.83261191O. Rodin1.8311117113
Upcoming Matches
Y. Tebenko
Sep 19 · 23:00Y. Tebenko1.91R. Novak1.80—Sep 20 · 24:30Y. Tebenko2.00V. Kovalchuk1.73—Sep 20 · 02:00Y. Tebenko2.63M. Khomenko1.44—Sep 20 · 13:05Y. Tebenko1.83Y. Parahailo1.83—Sep 20 · 15:05Y. Tebenko2.00R. Novak1.73—Sep 20 · 17:05Y. Tebenko2.00V. Kovalchuk1.73—Sep 20 · 19:05Y. Tebenko2.10D. Shchegelskyi1.67—
D. Shchegelskyi
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