TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136847
Played Sep 16Finished
Yaroslav Tebenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111136111012––
Ivan Pytsko
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Ivan Pytsko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 69 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 57–75 Ivan Pytsko Yaroslav Tebenko has won 57 of their 132 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 11h before this match
Tebenko beat Pytsko 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:30What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Pytsko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
57-75 in 132
Pytsko
Correct
gap of 18 in 132, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1657 vs Pytsko 1541
Tebenko
Wrong
both rated, 116 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 80% vs Pytsko 20%
Tebenko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 60% vs Pytsko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko +2 · Pytsko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tebenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pytsko form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 1.83 / Pytsko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tebenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13136847
Tebenko1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Pytsko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko8wins
AwayPytsko2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTebenko leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko100%7 of 7
AwayPytsko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko7Pytsko3n = 10Tebenko took 7 of 10
S2Tebenko7Pytsko3n = 10Tebenko took 7 of 10
S3Tebenko6Pytsko4n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S4Tebenko3Pytsko0n = 3Tebenko took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoPytskoT − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.728.3+6.4per matchSweeps52+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoPytskoBasisWin rate · lifetime406 / 838 vs 337 / 60548.5%55.7%406 / 838 vs 337 / 605Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoTebenko 1.83/Pytsko 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pytsko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 18:35Y. Tebenko331111113I. Pytsko215790
LSep 12 · 24:15Y. Tebenko197570I. Pytsko331111113
WSep 9 · 05:35Y. Tebenko341211113I. Pytsko1910450
WSep 8 · 18:35Y. Tebenko381111163I. Pytsko2978140
WSep 4 · 12:55Y. Tebenko559111311113I. Pytsko4911915862
WSep 2 · 07:05Y. Tebenko4011117113I. Pytsko29831171
LAug 25 · 02:30Y. Tebenko185850I. Pytsko331111113
WAug 5 · 11:05Y. Tebenko341211113I. Pytsko2310490
WJul 17 · 20:15Y. Tebenko331111113I. Pytsko155550
WJul 15 · 11:35Y. Tebenko43111011113I. Pytsko32712581
Y. Tebenko10
WSep 15 · 18:35Y. Tebenko1.831111113I. Pytsko1.835790WSep 15 · 16:35Y. Makovka2.106950Y. Tebenko1.671111113LSep 15 · 15:35Y. Tebenko1.831212121492O. Storozhenko1.8310101416113WSep 15 · 14:35D. Maltsev1.837350Y. Tebenko1.831111113WSep 15 · 13:05Y. Tebenko1.5011119143I. Fashchevskyi2.509411121WSep 14 · 11:35Y. Tebenko3.0011125133O. Rodin1.3671011111LSep 14 · 09:35M. Khomenko1.40117118113Y. Tebenko2.7531181172LSep 14 · 07:35Y. Parahailo2.001311113Y. Tebenko1.7311190LSep 14 · 06:35Y. Tebenko2.209149101Y. Vorsuliak1.61111211123WSep 14 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.67135641Y. Tebenko2.10111111113
I. Pytsko10
LSep 16 · 06:35I. Pytsko2.108115111O. Storozhenko1.6711611133LSep 15 · 18:35Y. Tebenko1.831111113I. Pytsko1.835790LSep 15 · 17:35O. Storozhenko1.67115111113I. Pytsko2.1091161182WSep 15 · 16:05D. Maltsev2.3891160I. Pytsko1.531113113LSep 15 · 14:05I. Fashchevskyi2.101111163I. Pytsko1.6778140LSep 15 · 12:05Y. Makovka4.0011118113I. Pytsko1.22591191WSep 15 · 02:30Y. Makovka3.254950I. Pytsko1.331111113WSep 15 · 01:30I. Fashchevskyi2.00118791I. Pytsko1.7371111113WSep 15 · 24:00V. Korobko2.0081060I. Pytsko1.731112113LSep 14 · 22:00D. Maltsev2.508111312113I. Pytsko1.50118111492
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.