TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155798
Played Sep 19Finished
Yaroslav Tebenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1196117111141210
Yurii Parahailo
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Yurii Parahailo below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 92 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 33–30 Yurii Parahailo Yurii Parahailo has won 30 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:58What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Parahailo
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-30 in 63
Tebenko
Correct
gap of 3 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1643 vs Parahailo 1580
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 80% vs Parahailo 40%
Tebenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 70% vs Parahailo 20%
Tebenko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko +3 · Parahailo -1
Tebenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tebenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Parahailo form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 1.83 / Parahailo 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tebenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13155798
Tebenko1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Parahailo1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko4wins
AwayParahailo6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderParahailo leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko100%4 of 4
AwayParahailo100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko4Parahailo6n = 10Parahailo took 6 of 10
S2Tebenko5Parahailo5n = 10split evenly
S3Tebenko5Parahailo5n = 10split evenly
S4Tebenko4Parahailo3n = 7Tebenko took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoParahailoT − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.936.3−1.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoParahailoBasisWin rate · lifetime408 / 842 vs 401 / 79648.5%50.4%408 / 842 vs 401 / 796Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoTebenko 1.83/Parahailo 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 07:35Y. Tebenko2111190Y. Parahailo351311113
WSep 12 · 20:00Y. Tebenko331111113Y. Parahailo187470
LAug 31 · 09:05Y. Tebenko4241181182Y. Parahailo48118117113
WAug 26 · 07:05Y. Tebenko4111118113Y. Parahailo31691151
LAug 19 · 09:05Y. Tebenko46411119112Y. Parahailo48115811133
WAug 18 · 18:35Y. Tebenko4111118113Y. Parahailo30651181
LAug 15 · 24:00Y. Tebenko23541131Y. Parahailo3911116113
WAug 12 · 07:05Y. Tebenko48111412113Y. Parahailo405161091
LAug 10 · 21:00Y. Tebenko229760Y. Parahailo331111113
LAug 8 · 08:55Y. Tebenko32991131Y. Parahailo4111118113
Y. Tebenko10
WSep 19 · 20:00Y. Tebenko2.10118611113D. Shchegelskyi1.6781111942WSep 16 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.8311119113O. Storozhenko1.83891161WSep 16 · 09:05I. Fashchevskyi2.63112811102Y. Tebenko1.44711119123LSep 16 · 08:05Y. Tebenko1.809121161D. Maltsev1.9111149113WSep 16 · 07:05Y. Makovka2.509980Y. Tebenko1.501111113LSep 16 · 05:35Y. Tebenko1.835116101I. Pytsko1.8311311123WSep 15 · 18:35Y. Tebenko1.831111113I. Pytsko1.835790WSep 15 · 16:35Y. Makovka2.106950Y. Tebenko1.671111113LSep 15 · 15:35Y. Tebenko1.831212121492O. Storozhenko1.8310101416113WSep 15 · 14:35D. Maltsev1.837350Y. Tebenko1.831111113
Y. Parahailo10
LSep 19 · 20:30M. Khomenko1.251111113Y. Parahailo3.759780WSep 14 · 10:35Y. Parahailo4.003141011133M. Khomenko1.221112128112LSep 14 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.5059111172V. Kovalchuk2.50111172113WSep 14 · 07:35Y. Parahailo2.001311113Y. Tebenko1.7311190LSep 14 · 06:05Y. Parahailo2.633870O. Rodin1.441111113LSep 14 · 04:35Y. Parahailo2.2512790Y. Vorsuliak1.571411113LSep 13 · 19:05Y. Parahailo3.7571190M. Khomenko1.251113103LSep 13 · 17:05Y. Kolos1.361111113Y. Parahailo3.006870LSep 13 · 15:05R. Novak1.831461110113Y. Parahailo1.83121191292LSep 13 · 14:05Y. Parahailo2.388980O. Rodin1.531111113
Upcoming Matches
Y. Tebenko
Sep 20 · 24:30Y. Tebenko2.00V. Kovalchuk1.73—Sep 20 · 02:00Y. Tebenko2.63M. Khomenko1.44—Sep 20 · 13:05Y. Tebenko1.83Y. Parahailo1.83—Sep 20 · 14:05Y. Tebenko1.91O. Storozhenko1.80—Sep 20 · 15:05Y. Tebenko2.00R. Novak1.73—Sep 20 · 17:05Y. Tebenko2.00V. Kovalchuk1.73—Sep 20 · 19:05Y. Tebenko2.10D. Shchegelskyi1.67—
Y. Parahailo
Sep 19 · 23:30Y. Parahailo1.44V. Kovalchuk2.63—Sep 20 · 01:30Y. Parahailo1.67D. Shchegelskyi2.10—Sep 20 · 03:00Y. Parahailo1.83R. Novak1.83—Sep 20 · 13:05Y. Parahailo1.83Y. Tebenko1.83—Sep 20 · 15:35Y. Parahailo—D. Shchegelskyi——Sep 20 · 16:35Y. Parahailo1.83R. Novak1.83—Sep 20 · 18:35Y. Parahailo1.73O. Storozhenko2.00—
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