TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155467
Played Sep 19Finished
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210911114911117
Yurii Parahailo
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:57 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeYurii Parahailo to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Yurii Parahailo below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 95 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Yurii Parahailo at 65.7%
95 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 44–73 Yurii Parahailo Vladyslav Kovalchuk has won 44 of their 117 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:57What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Parahailo
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
44-73 in 117
Parahailo
Wrong
gap of 29 in 117, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1567 vs Parahailo 1571
Parahailo
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 80% vs Parahailo 40%
Kovalchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Parahailo 20%
Kovalchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +2 · Parahailo -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Parahailo) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Parahailo form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 2.63 / Parahailo 1.44
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Parahailo)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13155467
Kovalchuk2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 98 of 226
Down 0–1, comes back22% 24 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 54
Parahailo1.44
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite59% won 87 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it87% 48 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it75% 64 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk1wins
AwayParahailo9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderParahailo leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk20%1 of 5
AwayParahailo100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk5Parahailo5n = 10split evenly
S2Kovalchuk1Parahailo9n = 10Parahailo took 9 of 10
S3Kovalchuk4Parahailo6n = 10Parahailo took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk0Parahailo7n = 7Parahailo took 7 of 7
S5Kovalchuk1Parahailo2n = 3Parahailo took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukParahailoK − PBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.140.9−8.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukParahailoBasisWin rate · lifetime372 / 772 vs 401 / 79748.2%50.3%372 / 772 vs 401 / 797Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParahailoKovalchuk 2.63/Parahailo 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Parahailo · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk42111172113Y. Parahailo4359111172
LSep 13 · 13:05V. Kovalchuk33591181Y. Parahailo4011117113
LSep 13 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk301110451Y. Parahailo4171211113
LAug 24 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk208570Y. Parahailo331111113
LAug 23 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk47111011872Y. Parahailo48612811113
LAug 23 · 24:30V. Kovalchuk46117121062Y. Parahailo528111012113
LAug 19 · 10:35V. Kovalchuk2513480Y. Parahailo371511113
LAug 18 · 12:05V. Kovalchuk173590Y. Parahailo331111113
LAug 15 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk34871181Y. Parahailo4011117113
LAug 11 · 16:05V. Kovalchuk27119341Y. Parahailo4291111113
V. Kovalchuk10
WSep 19 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.7371180V. Kovalchuk2.001113113WSep 19 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.381113123R. Novak1.53711100LSep 19 · 02:00I. Fashchevskyi2.751111115113V. Kovalchuk1.4076131192WSep 19 · 01:00V. Kovalchuk1.33111011113D. Maltsev3.25312991WSep 19 · 24:00V. Kovalchuk1.571111143I. Pytsko2.2599120WSep 18 · 22:30V. Kovalchuk1.80915119113O. Budnikov1.91111311162LSep 18 · 20:30V. Kovalchuk1.8311811972O. Storozhenko1.83911811113LSep 14 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk2.106470Y. Vorsuliak1.671111113WSep 14 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.5059111172V. Kovalchuk2.50111172113LSep 14 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk2.6391111782O. Rodin1.44119911113
Y. Parahailo10
LSep 19 · 21:30Y. Tebenko1.83116711123Y. Parahailo1.83911114102LSep 19 · 20:30M. Khomenko1.251111113Y. Parahailo3.759780WSep 14 · 10:35Y. Parahailo4.003141011133M. Khomenko1.221112128112LSep 14 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.5059111172V. Kovalchuk2.50111172113WSep 14 · 07:35Y. Parahailo2.001311113Y. Tebenko1.7311190LSep 14 · 06:05Y. Parahailo2.633870O. Rodin1.441111113LSep 14 · 04:35Y. Parahailo2.2512790Y. Vorsuliak1.571411113LSep 13 · 19:05Y. Parahailo3.7571190M. Khomenko1.251113103LSep 13 · 17:05Y. Kolos1.361111113Y. Parahailo3.006870LSep 13 · 15:05R. Novak1.831461110113Y. Parahailo1.83121191292
Upcoming Matches
V. Kovalchuk
Y. Parahailo
Sep 20 · 01:30Y. Parahailo1.67D. Shchegelskyi2.10—Sep 20 · 03:00Y. Parahailo1.83R. Novak1.83—Sep 20 · 13:05Y. Parahailo1.83Y. Tebenko1.83—Sep 20 · 14:35Y. Parahailo1.44V. Kovalchuk2.63—Sep 20 · 15:35Y. Parahailo1.67D. Shchegelskyi2.10—Sep 20 · 16:35Y. Parahailo1.83R. Novak1.83—Sep 20 · 18:35Y. Parahailo1.73O. Storozhenko2.00—
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