TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13154978
Played Sep 20Finished
Yaroslav Tebenko
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
61171112101012––
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVladyslav Kovalchuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Vladyslav Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 79 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Vladyslav Kovalchuk at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 36–39 Vladyslav Kovalchuk Yaroslav Tebenko has won 36 of their 75 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:20What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-39 in 75
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 3 in 75, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1659 vs Kovalchuk 1578
Tebenko
Wrong
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 100% vs Kovalchuk 80%
Tebenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 80% vs Kovalchuk 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko +5 · Kovalchuk +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tebenko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 2.00 / Kovalchuk 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovalchuk)-7.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13154978
Tebenko2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 120 of 254
Down 0–1, comes back31% 42 of 137
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 74
Kovalchuk1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 82 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it89% 31 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it76% 58 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko3wins
AwayKovalchuk7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko33.3%1 of 3
AwayKovalchuk71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko3Kovalchuk7n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S2Tebenko2Kovalchuk8n = 10Kovalchuk took 8 of 10
S3Tebenko5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Tebenko3Kovalchuk4n = 7Kovalchuk took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoKovalchukT − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.936.9−3.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime410 / 844 vs 373 / 77348.6%48.3%410 / 844 vs 373 / 773Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoTebenko 2.00/Kovalchuk 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 05:35Y. Tebenko44111111113V. Kovalchuk28135641
WSep 13 · 24:30Y. Tebenko41261111113V. Kovalchuk4211115872
LAug 19 · 07:05Y. Tebenko2385100V. Kovalchuk341111123
LAug 18 · 16:35Y. Tebenko381115661V. Kovalchuk4341711113
LAug 14 · 22:30Y. Tebenko45911113112V. Kovalchuk50119611133
LAug 5 · 07:05Y. Tebenko33691171V. Kovalchuk3811115113
LAug 4 · 18:35Y. Tebenko247980V. Kovalchuk331111113
WAug 4 · 02:30Y. Tebenko4111811113V. Kovalchuk28811721
LJul 29 · 09:35Y. Tebenko1910450V. Kovalchuk341211113
LJul 28 · 16:35Y. Tebenko31117581V. Kovalchuk3961111113
Y. Tebenko10
LSep 20 · 02:00Y. Tebenko2.635780M. Khomenko1.441111113WSep 19 · 23:00Y. Tebenko1.91111011113R. Novak1.80912971WSep 19 · 21:30Y. Tebenko1.83116711123Y. Parahailo1.83911114102WSep 19 · 20:00Y. Tebenko2.10118611113D. Shchegelskyi1.6781111942WSep 16 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.8311119113O. Storozhenko1.83891161WSep 16 · 09:05I. Fashchevskyi2.63112811102Y. Tebenko1.44711119123LSep 16 · 08:05Y. Tebenko1.809121161D. Maltsev1.9111149113WSep 16 · 07:05Y. Makovka2.509980Y. Tebenko1.501111113LSep 16 · 05:35Y. Tebenko1.835116101I. Pytsko1.8311311123WSep 15 · 18:35Y. Tebenko1.831111113I. Pytsko1.835790
V. Kovalchuk10
WSep 19 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.63129119113Y. Parahailo1.44101141172WSep 19 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.7371180V. Kovalchuk2.001113113WSep 19 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.381113123R. Novak1.53711100LSep 19 · 02:00I. Fashchevskyi2.751111115113V. Kovalchuk1.4076131192WSep 19 · 01:00V. Kovalchuk1.33111011113D. Maltsev3.25312991WSep 19 · 24:00V. Kovalchuk1.571111143I. Pytsko2.2599120WSep 18 · 22:30V. Kovalchuk1.80915119113O. Budnikov1.91111311162LSep 18 · 20:30V. Kovalchuk1.8311811972O. Storozhenko1.83911811113LSep 14 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk2.106470Y. Vorsuliak1.671111113WSep 14 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.5059111172V. Kovalchuk2.50111172113
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