TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13152977
Played Sep 19Finished
Michal Cabis
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118114114––––
Matyas Navedla
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Cabis to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Cabis above · Matyas Navedla below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 3-2
Point 39 set 3, 3-2 — our read held Michal Cabis at 54.0%
39 points drawn · the score is 10 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Michal Cabis 35–25 Matyas Navedla Matyas Navedla has won 25 of their 60 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:05What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Cabis
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-25 in 60
Cabis
Correct
gap of 10 in 60, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cabis 1827 vs Navedla 1717
Cabis
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cabis 20% vs Navedla 40%
Navedla
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cabis 40% vs Navedla 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cabis -4 · Navedla +1
Cabis
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Cabis) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cabis form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCabis 1.57 / Navedla 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Cabis)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13152977
Cabis1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 14)
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 115 of 208
Up 2–0, closes it93% 55 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it76% 74 of 98
Navedla2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 16)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 129 of 305
Down 0–1, comes back25% 37 of 151
Down 0–2, comes back11% 8 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCabis8wins
AwayNavedla2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCabis leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCabis75%3 of 4
AwayNavedla16.7%1 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cabis4Navedla6n = 10Navedla took 6 of 10
S2Cabis7Navedla3n = 10Cabis took 7 of 10
S3Cabis6Navedla4n = 10Cabis took 6 of 10
S4Cabis6Navedla3n = 9Cabis took 6 of 9
S5Cabis4Navedla1n = 5Cabis took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCabisNavedlaC − NBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.837.9+5.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCabisNavedlaBasisWin rate · lifetime370 / 708 vs 368 / 77552.3%47.5%370 / 708 vs 368 / 775Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CabisCabis 1.57/Navedla 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Cabis · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Cabis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 30 · 06:00M. Cabis4171111123M. Navedla341167101
WJul 20 · 20:30M. Cabis44111111113M. Navedla35813861
WJul 19 · 20:58M. Cabis51911911113M. Navedla4511911862
WJul 19 · 20:30M. Cabis48691111113M. Navedla3911118632
WJul 4 · 21:30M. Cabis4611129143M. Navedla4291011121
LJul 4 · 20:30M. Cabis33851191M. Navedla4111118113
WMay 7 · 12:30M. Cabis331111113M. Navedla185760
WMay 6 · 12:30M. Cabis49911117113M. Navedla4411941192
WMay 6 · 08:30M. Cabis491011611113M. Navedla4012411582
LMay 3 · 06:30M. Cabis4411119942M. Navedla41351111113
M. Cabis10
LSep 19 · 15:30D. Tomica1.73941111113M. Cabis2.0011116692LSep 14 · 17:00J. Szotkowski1.851111113M. Cabis1.806330LSep 14 · 16:00M. Biolek1.6111811123M. Cabis2.203116101LSep 14 · 15:00J. Dzida1.57111113113M. Cabis2.25791551LSep 14 · 14:30M. Cabis2.00751181J. Szotkowski1.7311119113WSep 12 · 21:29M. Cabis2.101111113D. Opanasiuk1.679580WSep 12 · 20:30M. Cabis1.83111110113R. Polasek1.83581281LSep 12 · 19:00M. Cabis2.3812671172J. Dzida1.531011119113WSep 12 · 18:00D. Opanasiuk1.61711801M. Cabis2.20111116113LSep 10 · 17:30T. Dousek1.851114113M. Cabis1.8581270
M. Navedla10
LSep 19 · 15:00M. Navedla2.006116141J. Pilch1.7311611163WSep 16 · 21:00L. Prikasky2.007790M. Navedla1.731111113LSep 16 · 20:00M. Navedla1.9161171112P. Wawrosz1.80119113113LSep 16 · 19:30M. Vavrecka1.53781211143M. Navedla2.381111105122LSep 16 · 18:00M. Navedla1.671110711112L. Prikasky2.10812113133WSep 14 · 20:58M. Navedla1.73111111113L. Prikasky2.00931361LSep 14 · 20:00M. Navedla2.251213581T. Dousek1.57101511113WSep 14 · 19:30L. Prikasky1.91612451M. Navedla1.80111011113LSep 14 · 18:00M. Navedla1.8357111152R. Niezgoda1.83111188113LSep 13 · 17:02M. Navedla1.83741191P. Wawrosz1.8311115113
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