TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13135687
Played Sep 16Finished
Matyas Navedla
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611119711113111
Pavel Wawrosz
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Wawrosz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatyas Navedla above · Pavel Wawrosz below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 1-11
Point 81 set 5, 1-11 — our read held Pavel Wawrosz at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Navedla 14–24 Pavel Wawrosz Matyas Navedla has won 14 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:17What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Wawrosz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-24 in 38
Wawrosz
Correct
gap of 10 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Navedla 1746 vs Wawrosz 1728
Navedla
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Navedla 40% vs Wawrosz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Navedla 30% vs Wawrosz 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Navedla -2 · Wawrosz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Wawrosz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wawrosz form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNavedla 1.91 / Wawrosz 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Wawrosz)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13135687
Navedla1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 130 of 307
Down 0–1, comes back24% 37 of 152
Down 0–2, comes back11% 8 of 71
Wawrosz1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 137 of 269
Up 2–0, closes it86% 50 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it70% 89 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNavedla4wins
AwayWawrosz6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderWawrosz leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNavedla60%3 of 5
AwayWawrosz80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Navedla5Wawrosz5n = 10split evenly
S2Navedla7Wawrosz3n = 10Navedla took 7 of 10
S3Navedla5Wawrosz5n = 10split evenly
S4Navedla2Wawrosz6n = 8Wawrosz took 6 of 8
S5Navedla2Wawrosz3n = 5Wawrosz took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNavedlaWawroszN − WBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.541.2−1.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNavedlaWawroszBasisWin rate · lifetime367 / 773 vs 217 / 43147.5%50.4%367 / 773 vs 217 / 431Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WawroszNavedla 1.91/Wawrosz 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Wawrosz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Wawrosz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 17:02M. Navedla31741191P. Wawrosz3811115113
WSep 13 · 14:00M. Navedla514131112113P. Wawrosz49111151482
LSep 8 · 06:30M. Navedla33813481P. Wawrosz44111111113
WSep 7 · 10:30M. Navedla331111113P. Wawrosz188550
LSep 5 · 07:00M. Navedla4411117692P. Wawrosz49881111113
LSep 4 · 10:30M. Navedla4297111142P. Wawrosz43111164113
LAug 26 · 17:30M. Navedla3611112392P. Wawrosz49881111113
WAug 26 · 15:30M. Navedla331111113P. Wawrosz207850
WAug 24 · 08:30M. Navedla58147818113P. Wawrosz591211111692
LAug 23 · 16:58M. Navedla34512981P. Wawrosz43111011113
M. Navedla10
LSep 16 · 19:30M. Vavrecka1.53781211143M. Navedla2.381111105122LSep 16 · 18:00M. Navedla1.671110711112L. Prikasky2.10812113133WSep 14 · 20:58M. Navedla1.73111111113L. Prikasky2.00931361LSep 14 · 20:00M. Navedla2.251213581T. Dousek1.57101511113WSep 14 · 19:30L. Prikasky1.91612451M. Navedla1.80111011113LSep 14 · 18:00M. Navedla1.8357111152R. Niezgoda1.83111188113LSep 13 · 17:02M. Navedla1.83741191P. Wawrosz1.8311115113LSep 13 · 16:30M. Navedla2.005117101J. Pilch1.7311811123LSep 13 · 15:00M. Navedla1.83771151R. Revay1.8311116113WSep 13 · 14:00P. Wawrosz1.67111151482M. Navedla2.104131112113
P. Wawrosz10
WSep 16 · 19:00L. Prikasky1.83111110972P. Wawrosz1.83981211113WSep 16 · 18:30P. Wawrosz2.0012911133M. Vavrecka1.7310116111LSep 14 · 13:00J. Szotkowski1.781211511113P. Wawrosz1.9314811692LSep 14 · 12:30P. Wawrosz2.00611661M. Vavrecka1.7311811113LSep 14 · 11:00P. Wawrosz1.831146101R. Polasek1.8391111123LSep 14 · 10:00J. Szotkowski1.531111910123P. Wawrosz2.38671112102LSep 14 · 09:30P. Wawrosz1.85117381R. Polasek1.8551111113WSep 14 · 08:00R. Revay1.83511991P. Wawrosz1.8311711113WSep 13 · 17:02M. Navedla1.83741191P. Wawrosz1.8311115113LSep 13 · 14:00P. Wawrosz1.67111151482M. Navedla2.104131112113
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