TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13143133
Played Sep 16Finished
Libor Prikasky
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711711911––––
Matyas Navedla
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:51 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeMatyas Navedla to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLibor Prikasky above · Matyas Navedla below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 56 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Matyas Navedla at 55.1%
56 points played in total.
H2H Libor Prikasky 11–23 Matyas Navedla Libor Prikasky has won 11 of their 34 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Prikasky beat Navedla 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:51What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Navedla
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-23 in 34
Navedla
Correct
gap of 12 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Prikasky 1717 vs Navedla 1749
Navedla
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Prikasky 20% vs Navedla 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Prikasky 40% vs Navedla 20%
Prikasky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Prikasky -2 · Navedla -3
Navedla
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Navedla) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Navedla form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrikasky 2.00 / Navedla 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Navedla)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13143133
Prikasky2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 83 of 188
Down 0–1, comes back23% 24 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 58
Navedla1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 43 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it64% 29 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePrikasky4wins
AwayNavedla6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderNavedla leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrikaskyn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayNavedla60%6 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Prikasky0Navedla10n = 10Navedla took 10 of 10
S2Prikasky7Navedla3n = 10Prikasky took 7 of 10
S3Prikasky4Navedla6n = 10Navedla took 6 of 10
S4Prikasky2Navedla6n = 8Navedla took 6 of 8
S5Prikasky4Navedla1n = 5Prikasky took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPrikaskyNavedlaP − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match37.642.3−4.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrikaskyNavedlaBasisWin rate · lifetime255 / 461 vs 368 / 77555.3%47.5%255 / 461 vs 368 / 775Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NavedlaPrikasky 2.00/Navedla 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Navedla · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Navedla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 21:00L. Prikasky237790M. Navedla331111113
WSep 16 · 18:00L. Prikasky47812113133M. Navedla501110711112
LSep 14 · 20:58L. Prikasky31931361M. Navedla44111111113
LSep 14 · 19:30L. Prikasky27612451M. Navedla43111011113
LSep 5 · 09:00L. Prikasky356111171M. Navedla4311813113
LSep 5 · 06:30L. Prikasky4791351192M. Navedla521111118113
WSep 4 · 14:30L. Prikasky461111011133M. Navedla44116124112
WSep 4 · 13:00L. Prikasky529111110113M. Navedla4011751252
WSep 4 · 11:00L. Prikasky45511117113M. Navedla4111761162
LAug 26 · 14:30L. Prikasky238690M. Navedla331111113
L. Prikasky10
LSep 16 · 20:30L. Prikasky1.8335100M. Vavrecka1.831111123LSep 16 · 19:00L. Prikasky1.83111110972P. Wawrosz1.83981211113WSep 16 · 18:00M. Navedla1.671110711112L. Prikasky2.10812113133LSep 14 · 20:58M. Navedla1.73111111113L. Prikasky2.00931361LSep 14 · 20:30R. Niezgoda1.731111113L. Prikasky2.003750LSep 14 · 19:30L. Prikasky1.91612451M. Navedla1.80111011113WSep 14 · 18:30T. Dousek1.73811111082L. Prikasky2.00113912113LSep 12 · 09:30L. Prikasky1.9171191112L. Velebil1.80117116113WSep 12 · 08:30L. Prikasky2.1011811113L. Velebil1.67711971WSep 12 · 07:00L. Prikasky1.9181112113J. Pilch1.801191061
M. Navedla10
LSep 16 · 20:00M. Navedla1.9161171112P. Wawrosz1.80119113113LSep 16 · 19:30M. Vavrecka1.53781211143M. Navedla2.381111105122LSep 16 · 18:00M. Navedla1.671110711112L. Prikasky2.10812113133WSep 14 · 20:58M. Navedla1.73111111113L. Prikasky2.00931361LSep 14 · 20:00M. Navedla2.251213581T. Dousek1.57101511113WSep 14 · 19:30L. Prikasky1.91612451M. Navedla1.80111011113LSep 14 · 18:00M. Navedla1.8357111152R. Niezgoda1.83111188113LSep 13 · 17:02M. Navedla1.83741191P. Wawrosz1.8311115113LSep 13 · 16:30M. Navedla2.005117101J. Pilch1.7311811123LSep 13 · 15:00M. Navedla1.83771151R. Revay1.8311116113
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