TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13119307
Played Sep 12Finished
Libor Prikasky
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711117911116111
Lukas Velebil
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLibor Prikasky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLibor Prikasky above · Lukas Velebil below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 1-11
Point 85 set 5, 1-11 — our read held Libor Prikasky at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Libor Prikasky 1–1 Lukas Velebil Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Prikasky beat Velebil 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:03What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Velebil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Prikasky 1794 vs Velebil 1758
Prikasky
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Prikasky 80% vs Velebil 60%
Prikasky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Prikasky 50% vs Velebil 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Prikasky +4 · Velebil -1
Prikasky
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Velebil) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Prikasky form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrikasky 1.91 / Velebil 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Velebil)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13119307
Prikasky1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 84 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back22% 25 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 63
Velebil1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 29 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it81% 13 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it79% 19 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePrikasky1wins
AwayVelebil1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricPrikaskyVelebilP − VBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match31.033.5−2.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrikaskyVelebilBasisWin rate · lifetime253 / 452 vs 52 / 9456%55.3%253 / 452 vs 52 / 94Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VelebilPrikasky 1.91/Velebil 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Velebil · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Velebil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 12 · 08:30L. Prikasky—11811113L. Velebil—711971
LAug 27 · 15:30L. Prikasky—4890L. Velebil—1111113
L. Prikasky10
WSep 12 · 08:30L. Prikasky2.1011811113L. Velebil1.67711971WSep 12 · 07:00L. Prikasky1.9181112113J. Pilch1.801191061WSep 12 · 06:00P. Wawrosz1.809111191L. Prikasky1.9111136113WSep 9 · 17:00M. Skotnica1.61101111852L. Prikasky2.20129611113LSep 9 · 16:30L. Prikasky2.0391350R. Polasek1.621115113LSep 9 · 15:00L. Prikasky1.83541381M. Grundel1.83111111113LSep 9 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.618111110113L. Prikasky2.2011561252LSep 5 · 09:00M. Navedla1.8311813113L. Prikasky1.836111171WSep 5 · 08:30P. Wawrosz1.73771161L. Prikasky2.0011115113LSep 5 · 07:30L. Prikasky1.8391180M. Vavrecka1.831113113
L. Velebil10
LSep 12 · 08:30L. Prikasky2.1011811113L. Velebil1.67711971WSep 12 · 07:30L. Velebil2.1011117113P. Wawrosz1.67881141WSep 12 · 06:30J. Pilch1.67116112132L. Velebil2.10711711153LSep 10 · 17:30L. Velebil1.8071191152D. Tomica1.90119119113WSep 10 · 16:30L. Velebil1.4451111113F. Nadymacek2.63114751WSep 10 · 15:00L. Velebil1.8371112113D. Tomica1.831151071WSep 10 · 14:00M. Grundel1.67119931L. Velebil2.1041111113WSep 3 · 16:59R. Urbaniec2.635450L. Velebil1.441111113LSep 3 · 16:30L. Velebil1.33111158102R. Urbaniec3.25891111123LSep 3 · 15:00L. Velebil1.838101191M. Skotnica1.8311129113
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