TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13152494
Played Sep 18Finished
Karel Baros
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191210811118––
Michal Moravec
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 11Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 11
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:18 and never touched — 65.8% is still 65.8%
Graded at full timeMichal Moravec to win
65.8%
65.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKarel Baros above · Michal Moravec below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 80 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Michal Moravec at 65.8%
80 points played in total.
H2H Karel Baros 0–2 Michal Moravec Karel Baros has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:18What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Moravec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Baros 1485 vs Moravec 1636
Moravec
Wrong
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baros 40% vs Moravec 100%
Moravec
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baros 40% vs Moravec 100%
Moravec
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baros -2 · Moravec +11
Moravec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Moravec) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaros 2.63 / Moravec 1.44
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Moravec)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13152494
Baros2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 18 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back40% 8 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back20% 2 of 10
Moravec1.44
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 11
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite56% won 45 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it73% 32 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBaros0wins
AwayMoravec2wins
Moravec leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away2
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricBarosMoravecB − MBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match34.041.0−7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBarosMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 272 vs 193 / 38054.4%50.8%148 / 272 vs 193 / 380Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecBaros 2.63/Moravec 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.3%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Baros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 17 · 17:15K. Baros33981151M. Moravec4211119113
LSep 17 · 15:10K. Baros35911781M. Moravec4011711113
K. Baros10
LSep 18 · 16:15T. Molin2.101111911113K. Baros1.6771311652LSep 18 · 13:45A. Cizek1.801112113K. Baros1.9141030LSep 17 · 17:15M. Moravec1.5011119113K. Baros2.50981151WSep 17 · 16:10T. Molin2.38131191162K. Baros1.53156117113LSep 17 · 15:10K. Baros2.50911781M. Moravec1.5011711113WSep 17 · 13:40A. Cizek1.675811121K. Baros2.1011116143LSep 11 · 17:10A. Drozd2.051113113K. Baros1.6891160LSep 11 · 15:40K. Baros1.7311178482J. Volny2.005151111113WSep 11 · 14:40K. Baros1.675111111113A. Drozd2.1011713852WSep 11 · 13:40K. Baros1.8011611113O. Skvor1.91711661
M. Moravec10
LSep 18 · 15:45A. Cizek2.751411113M. Moravec1.4012730WSep 18 · 14:15M. Moravec1.3381114113T. Molin3.251181281WSep 17 · 17:15M. Moravec1.5011119113K. Baros2.50981151WSep 17 · 15:40A. Cizek2.505118111M. Moravec1.5011811133WSep 17 · 15:10K. Baros2.50911781M. Moravec1.5011711113WSep 17 · 14:10M. Moravec1.501111113T. Molin2.507870WSep 16 · 13:10M. Moravec1.731112123D. Pawlik2.00710100WSep 16 · 12:10M. Moravec1.831111133L. Dzida1.8399110WSep 16 · 10:40D. Pawlik1.8314960M. Moravec1.831611113WSep 16 · 10:10T. Kindl1.57791191M. Moravec2.2511117113
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